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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick who wrote (15612)	4/6/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Respond to of 94695

I suggest you take a look at the last twenty minutes of trading on the S&P futures..... my bet....David..you will be ahead in the morning on those puts!!! even if you did miss a meaty downdraft on the NASDAQ because of Bill's monopoly

To: Rick who wrote (15612)	4/6/1998 5:03:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 94695

Rick, pull up the intra day chart of the DJIA. At precisely 2:00PM EST it peaked and headed down. David mentioned 2:00PM yesterday as the peak of the afternoon rally. Sure the DJIA was up higher than that in the first part of the day, but that was the bullish spike on the merger news, and that spike did not last. Regardless of whether David's specific forecast proves correct, this market is overbought and hyper-extended by virtually every measure, due for some kind of pullback. The Naz certainly took it on the chin, and the DJIA would not have closed above 9000 were it not for the merger. I've heard on the radio that if it weren't for the stocks affected by the merger, the DJIA would have closed at -50 pts for the day. If each remaining month of this year have gains the size of Feb and March, we'll have 72-84% gains on the major indexes for 1998 -- not exactly in the realm of realistic. DK

To: Rick who wrote (15612)	4/6/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

Well, I saw the sign I've been looking for. If you crawl in the wayback machine you'll find that the last gasp of bull markets coincide with an insane merger mania and blowout top by the brokerages.

To: Rick who wrote (15612)	4/6/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

WATCH

To: Rick who wrote (15612)	4/6/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 94695

Rick, you are missing the point of this type of TA (many types really). Astrology and tea leaves have nothing to do with the markets (though Arch Crawford would certainly disagree), but TA, particularly Elliot Wave or similar methods, is an attempt to quantify market psychology and, longer term, economic cycles (and the relationship between the two). No one claims that the methods are infallible, but the discipline of following such a rigorous approach surely pays dividends as many highly discipline investment strategies do. BTW, I'd say that, in spite of the "BIG merger announcement", David's scenario DID play out (so far, of course). Bob