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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (18596)	4/6/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

We all know MOT is not AMAT but AMAT does exist is MOT's world and it's report does illustrate the dangers of buying into a market with a historically high trailing PE (28 for the S&P 500), when earnings are declining, and revenue growth is stalled.... MOT basically said it problems aren't going away soon, that revenue and earnings will be below expectations (corporate earnings as a whole are expected to grow a princely .04% this quarter) FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.... (MOT IS NOW (UNTIL IT CORRECTS) trading at 50 x this years likely earnings... PLEASE I'd rather own KODAK IMO this whole baby boomers providing the market with a new "value paradigm" is a bunch of hooey.... It is just today's excuse to excuse the inexcusable ---- uncontrolled asset inflation.... what we in fact have is a bunch of inflated paper that if investors ever tried to redeem en-mass would soon become worthless.... lets break it down to real simple stuff... stock prices have been growing faster than profits and revenues for most of the '90's with the expectation that future growth will be the end that justifies the means..... but when that does not happen... LIKE RIGHT NOW....the market does not correct LOOK.... and we the people are left with a vastly diluted shares of something that is not worth what we paid for it.... THERE IS NO OTHER REASONABLE EXPLANATION ... if we paid x in the expectation of growth, and that growth does not materialize we have overpaid... OVER AND OUT... and when we use our overpriced stock as currency to aquire other assetts we inflate those values as well... IT IS UNDENIABLE... I guess that's how beanie babies can be made by the million and still appreciate when they're retired. Of course one can argue that the uncertainty is already in a stock 30% ish off its highs... SO ARGUE THAT... but I think that they're all going to say what MOT just said... the period of uncertainty has been extended by decree, and we still don't know what is happening in Japan, but it doesn't look great, and when your guessing (which I am) that justice is going to delay windows 98, that pc market is oneyear away from rediscovering the secret of profit, and when u think INTC will reduce capex.... WHICH IMO IT ALREADY HAS... check out FRED SOUNDVIEW THIS MORNING... he's saying that the KLIC pushouts and cancellation are the beginning not the end... And when U look at DRAM as the latest and greatest manifestation of state capitalism's stratigic blunders and excess.... YOU BUY PUTS AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY.... FYI today I spent the afternoon playing with my kid --- ahhhhhh --- u know going pee-po and boo and twisting my face into Jim Careyisms.... When the pres. of NS... appears on CNBC, before me wearing a broad smirk and explains that his new pc on a chip... chip... is going to transform the market buy crimping competitors margins... And I'm thinking to myself... wow... I must invest in this brave profitless applicationless digital future... And then I wonder why Intel with its 12,000 boffin's cannot seem to keep pace with six Russians... and then I decide that the bully deserves the kick in the pants its getting... and I go back to playing with my kid because her smile is more attractive than the NS pres's smirk, and the long side of the semi's right now....