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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marshall freeman who wrote (2745)	4/6/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

I don't see APCO at 31 in the next tweleve months unless they break the piggy bank and do something with their cash. My estimate puts the stock at 18-20 in the next year. Sergio

To: marshall freeman who wrote (2745)	4/6/1998 10:59:00 PM
From: Cary C	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29382

To all shareholders or want to be shareholders of APCO.... I spoke to three different Allstate agents today. Very interesting as to what they had to say. This by no means was a scientific survey. Different parts of the country I,m sure are different. It did however bring up a couple of concerns that all three agreed upon. I would suggest you call Allstate agents and draw your own conclusions though. Here is what I found, I. Warranty premium must be paid in 1 year through Allstate where as it can be financed for the term of the car loan from the dealer. 2. As of now, the Allstate warranty plan is not included as something they have to sell in any of the contests that the agents have. 3. At the 2 hour training the impression was, oh well something else to sell. Not very enthusiastic about the program. 4. One tried selling a policy to a close acquaintance but they got a better deal .... price and terms and deductible from the dealer. The euphoria that Allstate and Bank One have created could end up being harmful to the stock price. They will be great for name recognition when APCO presents to future or existing dealerships. The growth that APCO has seen should continue strong. To assume that these two deals will themselves will bring lots of revenue to APCO, is premature. When one holds or purchases APCO, they should do so for the controlled growth that they have shown through the dealerships. APCO has stated that earning estimates are .43 this year that ends 12/98. Kenny Securities has upgraded 99 estimates but not 98 estimates. Granted APCO is conservative when reporting earnings so I would assume they would make more than .43. At this point, without knowing the impact of Allstate, Bank One or if the decline in auto sells that was witnessed last month will continue, I would be hesitant to say more than .50 or so. Unless you think they are going to make more than that or trade at higher pe multiple of 35 to 40, That still puts APCO between 17 and 20 at years end. That is plenty for me. Talk of more than that without facts could do more harm than good. Cary