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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (1870)	4/8/1998 1:03:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

The big effort is over now with the restructuring of the database. Now that it is over, I think the information will be more useful. I am happy that you, Kent, Joe and others find the information of some benefit. As long as you do, I will attempt to post it on a regular basis. When I started doing the regular evaluation, I did it to obtain a better "feel" for all the stocks in the group. It has made a positive difference for me in that regard. New subject: The downward trend of the last three days has been "awesome". The market in general looks weak, and coupled with several recent announcements of earnings downgrades, the semi-equips are taking a beating. Looks like we might have some volatile trading sessions for "awhile" until the outlook begins to look brighter for the sector. As they were on the upside, the analysts are slow on the downside. That is one of the things the "statistics" have shown since I started keeping track a year ago this month. While the "group" stock prices have doubled (and fallen back again), the analyst estimates have moved about 25 percent from top to bottom for the group as a whole. The latest example is IPEC which announced within the last 24 hours. The analysts were forecasting $0.06 earnings for the quarter and the company just announced they were expecting a significant loss because of "pushouts" due to business conditions. People, in general, have been apprehensive about the deterioration of business conditions over the past several months. Over that same period, analyst estimates on some stocks have moved very little. Certainly the change in estimates do not reflect the drop-off in consumer demand (or excess capacity) that is being experienced. I find this analyst behavior very curious. They certainly know better, but by their lack of re-doing their estimates, the investor can really be caught flat-footed if a person takes the estimates at face value. Best Regards, Don W.