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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dan P who wrote (111)4/6/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: paul ross  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 972
 
Dan-

I thought it was an interesting post, I have always been curious as to whether there was a relationship between XAU/gold one could use to time the market.

Just throwing some quick nos. together from my DTN quote:

date........XAU..........GOLD.........RATIO
7/86.......58.72 L.......342.50........(.1714
9/87......157.02 H.......465.30........(.3375)
12/88......83.79 L.......408.20........(.2053)
1/90......138.19 H.......422.00........(.3275)
11/92......64.38 L.......322.80........(.1934)
1/94......146.32 H.......397.80........(.3678)
1/95.......96.66 L.......372.00........(.2598)
2/96......155.60 H.......419.60........(.3708)
1/98.......61.23 L.......278.40........(.2199)

Close to .2 seems to be a good place to look to buy, .32 or over look to sell. My DTN data is limited by the fact that I used a monthly chart and could only correlate monthly highs or lows in XAU/gold, not the exact day relationship, but it's close. Also, there's not enough data here (I'll try to do more research when I get time) to know if these ratios hold if XAU is not at a high or low.

PR