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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (113)	4/7/1998 2:59:00 AM
From: paul ross	Respond to of 972

Thanks, Richard. I have run the data back from 1/85, using the monthly closes of the XAU and gold to get a ratio. Using the first monthly ratio of .220 or below as a buy signal and the first monthly ratio of .320 or above as a sell signal the following trades would have been generated: >>>>>>>>>XAU>>>>>>GOLD>>>RATIO>>P/A* buy 4/86.....67.74......346.20....(.1957) sell 8/87...147.51......450.60....(.3274)...79.3% buy 10/87....96.78......468.80....(.2064) sell 1/90...130.28......412.40....(.3259)...14.1% buy 1/91.....80.31......365.80....(.2195) sell 10/93...123.45.......369.6....(.3340)...16.9% buy 12/97....63.28......289.90....(.2183) sell ???? *P/A - profit annualized The results are based on accuracy of DTN data and my calculations. The lows during that time period were 7/86 - 58.72, 12/88 - 83.79, 11/92 - 64.38, 1/95 - 96.66, and 1/98 - 61.23. The highs were 9/87 - 157.02,1/90 - 138.19,1/94 - 146.32, and 2/96 - 155.6. The system did not generate a buy signal from the 1/95 low at 96.66 through the 2/96 high at 155.60. Using daily closes may have improved the results, or using different signals (perhaps.200 instead of .220 as a buy) as entry/exit points. This is certainly not a be all and end all system, but another tool to be added to the tool box. PR