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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (18258)	4/6/1998 10:36:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

bw, want to reply you in the open so we can discuss the trading tomorrow on ESV. First, has anyone question how has reporter gotten news like this? Reading it twice does convince me this writer has a negative bias against ESV. Now, assuming the herd mentality holds and we are going to sell off tomorrow morning and ESV is spearheading the plunge, here are some support numbers: First support at $25 3/8 - the lowest close of the most recent low. Second support at $24 - January low. ESV closed at $27 today. From its intraday chart one would not say ESV is selling off any worse than other drillers by the close. The one pretty large volume peak happened to push ESV below $27 late in the day. But the one pretty large buying on the last 5 minute upturn could be anything - could be the unlucky bottom fisher for all we know. Anyway, if oil is lower or flat tomorrow morning, ESV will open lower. The question is how low. $25 3/8 is about 6% lower and if it opens that low an immediate rebound will likely ensue. If you are willing to part at $26.25 why don't you set a limit price at $26.25 and if it does not get triggered at the open you pull the limit order off right away and wait for the rebound. No one knows how high the rebound will be but make a mental number of no more than half the initial loss. Therefore, if it opens at $25 3/8 look for it to reach $26 1/8 before turning around and drop further. This is true only if the whole sector tanks. This is a bearish scenario. But if ESV opens higher than $26 1/4 your stock is sold. That would allow you to switch into other drillers without too much of a loss. What would be a good scenario? Oil is up tomorrow morning and some analysts are banging the tables. It just seems to me this is less likely. Like many here I'm looking forward to a good trashing of the drillers so that I can buy them cheap once again. So just a reminder - if you sell tomorrow you need to keep an eye to buy them back in case the situation turns around and all drillers begin to rally. My personal opinion based on TA is this will happen further out but not tomorrow. Oh, another reminder - the drillers always go along many short term cycles - up and down and up and down. Take advantage.