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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (6416)	4/7/1998 1:08:00 AM
From: CatLady	Respond to of 18691

I went with a small bet on CTXS April 50's. Why? I was looking for puts on an overvalued tech stock that would move alot with a general tech selloff in the next two weeks. CTXS is very volatile, but the option premium was not out of line with it's volatility, unlike AOL or YHOO. Also short term stochastic gave me a sell signal Friday, with some indications of a possible break in the medium-term upward trend. Today's move down makes me think the trend was definately broken. I had three other candidates, besides CTXS, but none that I've followed as anywhere near as closely as CTXS, so it's the one I chose. I agree with Roger that CTXS is overvalued, but not to the same degree . I might give CTXS a fair value around 30 to 35, If I was shorting only on valuation, I'd go out a lot longer, or just short instead of puts.