To: Darwin Tu who wrote (2098 ) 4/7/1998 7:59:00 AM From: qdog Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21876
qdog, regarding CNBC's comment on LU overvaluation, I have my two cents. I think most analyst are trying to make a name for themselves and if the call is right regarding overvaluation, they become instant heroes. Personally, I don't think they add any value to our stock arena. If LU is overvalued, why are people still crazy about the stock. No one is sick enough to gamble 130 dollar I wasn't aware that CNBC was making this comment. As to the rest, I think your comment about gambling and crazy speaks for itself. Why did people go crazy for a Netscape or Iomega? Why did they gamble money on "the next MSFT"? People tend to only "discover " a stock after it has moved 60 or 70% I was in it from the IPO and spinoff. I didn't "buy" when the word on the street came out about a 2 for 1 spilt which automatically causes a rush into any stock. Hell they got a paging service for split stocks now, and who is the selling feature in the Commericial "I bot LU options when they announced a split for a whoppong $12,000!!" Sorry that isn't investing, that herd mentality and quick buck artist. Look at the number that sold LU and shift to another stock for a run at a split?? I'm not argueing with there style and I wish them well, but that is part of the mania. Momentum players, well, they leave and then what happens?The comment on LU being too expensive, then I think the internet stocks, the AOLs, the Yahoos and what not should be banned from the market. Some of these guys don't even generate revenues or break even at this time. At least LU is a billion dollar firm who has put most of its effort on R& D and are just beginning to exploit their expertise to the marketplace. This is a first class company that will bring much value added to our society just as what they did by inventing the transistor. There the next ones to come under pressure from the shorts. I never have said anything bad about LU. As a matter of fact I agree with your assessment, what's it's PE based on forward looking EPS? You undersestimate other companies in this business, namely, NT. Europeans such as Ericsson, ALcatel, Siemens are all formidable companies. Then there are the Japanese companies, mainly NEC. A strong dollar, for instance, puts LU at a somewhat price disadvantage. Bell Labs is still the world foremost R&D lab, but how much has it been hurt by reduced federal dollars? Oh yeah, that something to consider, Bell Labs has done alot of research for the US Military. So CNBC should smell the flowers and begin to really appreciate good companies versus companies that trades up on hype.. I see LU growing steadily over the next five years but I certainly cannot say for the AOLs, Yahoos, internet stocks. You may see one winner (i.e. a microsoft) amongst the group. so why not LU????? Let me know if I am wrong....It really upset me to see AOL or Yahoo (a search enginer company at best) goes up 5 points a day and I hear no ones says it is too expensive...... So, get these analyst off our backs!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't invest based on the daily news article or someones DD and Homework, especially if they are MM, analyst and letter writers. I do it with my own various vodoo apparatus and ouija boards. For the record I have heard them, especially Haines be critical of the highfliers and the analyst that tout them to eyepopping levels. Maybe you only hear them when it involves your stock. As a very long holder of T and therefore LU; I've gone through the ups and downs. Right now there is this narcotic high by this move and split, but it doesn't change my mind on the fact that it is pretty overdone. I'm a telecommuication consultant and as long as the biz of communication is building out at the present pace I'm long these stocks. Ain't going to last forever.