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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mph who wrote (18316)	4/7/1998 11:46:00 AM
From: papi riqui	Respond to of 95453

In response to all the recent prognosticating about the price of oil going lower etc., etc., and the negative effect of same on the fortunes of the drillers/servicers, the general mantra has been to forget about oil prices and look at the fundamentals for the individual companies. Maybe it's my cautious nature overcoming me, but I seem to sense the sands shifting ever so slightly on this (fundamentals) issue, e.g., lower dayrates in the offing, rigs being idled here and there, earnings slightly lower, oil supply growing, world oil reserves plentiful, and so on. Granted, some (or all) of this may be nothing more than normal adjustments to present realities and not a fundamental shift. But there's no denying that despite all the talk about the driller's projected megazillion earnings growth v. the S&P's paltry 5%, the market simply does not buy it, or hasn't so far, and this troubles me. There also is a whiff of a changing sentiment not just on this thread but "out there" (energy bulls don't seem quite as bullish as before) that may mean a lingering slowdown of longer rather than shorter duration resulting in lower lows and highs in the near term. Yes, I'm still looking to buy when recent lows are revisited in some of the favorites like ESV, GLM, VRC..., but I'm keeping my eyes wide open for a slip below those lows. Nothing scientific here, just a sense of the times we're in.