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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meathead who wrote (36886)	4/7/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Very nice response Meathead. <The reason why there was no market for WinTel workstations 18mos <ago was because none of the UNIX power apps were ready for NT at <that time.... not because the Intel architecture lacked power. <We designed a dual Pentium Pro machine 2 1/2 years ago that could <smoke a SPARC 10 in benchmarks at a fraction of the cost. So at the <low to midrange, the hardware/OS was ready to compete. You explain this a little differently than I did. What I think you are describing here is the reason I shorted SUNW a while back. At any rate, 2 1/2 years ago, The power came available. 1 1/2 years ago, the software came along and Now SGI can't compete on a price basis. How's that? >Dell will grow to 16-17B in revenues this year.. 30-40% growth.. >I can live with that kind of slowdown. I can see Dell with 50-60B in >revenues within 5 years. When I refer to PC growth, I am referring to Revenue growth. With industry revenue growth Slowing to 13% from 15% in 1997, I think DELL will have a very tough time maintaining its growth rate. Adding 4.5 Billion in new sales in a market growing @ 15% or about $24 Billion in 1997 is a lot easier than: Adding 5.4 Billion, about 45% Rev growth in a market expected to grow 13% or about 20 billion. That means DELL must get a bigger portion of the new sales in a hugely price competitive market. One report I read said that Q1 industry growth may be flat, as ASPs are falling at greater than 20% annually. Units up big, but the offset is flat. >Again, you compare machines based solely on speed... this is why you >continually miss the point of what a high end machine is. I don't >think you have a clue as to what the real world of business >computing needs and compatibility issues really are. You left yourself open to this one :) O.K. You want me to believe that the differences in Speed are not important any more. Yes there are technical specifications that are important. If speed is so not important, then why is there this incredible move to faster processors, faster bus, AGP, SDRAM, You mean to tell me that All of the incremental improvements in component and peripheral speed Is not Important any more? I thought all of this stuff was the reason for the 2 year PC upgrade cycle? If speed is not important, The upgrade cycle in over. For some reason, Meathead, I had it in my mind that PC100 was a big speed boost and the main reason why is that with CPU speeds so high, they speed a lot of time waiting of the rest of the machine to catch up to them. If you think speed is not important anymore, Then you should be in the $1000 PC camp for Business and every one else. If we don't use speed as a measure of PC performance, then we can use User perception. Most every day users can not tell the difference between a P-200 MMX and an AMD K6-233 or a P II-300. Since this is the case and according to you, the speed of the higher end machine is not important, why not buy the one that cost the least that will your technical requirements? This is precisely what I have been talking about. As the continuious improvements come, The Old stuff becomes more affordable and more capable. I am in the stock business. I have been in many different types of offices, and I have to confess, I don't know what goes on the Back Office side. But all of the Desktop machines that I have seen don't seem to do much. Mine Works pretty hard, According to the Performance report. But Even if it were a 100BX, I as a user would not notice anything but the price tag. DELL sells a lot of machines that really don't do a lot like the desktops I refer to. Their primary growth drivers are at the high end. I don't think dell can offset the deterioation in the lowend with Growth at the highend. Their lack of abality to provide the service requirements at the higher end will hurt them as CPQ IBM and HWP and SUNW will continue to compete agressively for this higher end business that DELL currently does not participate in. Just because WinTel gets the hardware there does not mean these very high end customes want to do business with them and their network on other service providers. Jim