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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (36918)	4/7/1998 12:59:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Dell Computer Corp. (DELL) 64 1/4 -1: Cowen & Co. expects an upbeat analyst meeting on April 9 with direct PC and server marketer; expects reinforcement of message that business momentum is strong across all products, despite industry turmoil; DELL expected to address enterprise strategies in depth; while firm continues to rate issue a "buy," thinks a lot of the good news already reflected in the stock price.....

To: JRI who wrote (36918)	4/7/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: W.B. Michaels	Respond to of 176387

GOOD ANALYSIS--I JUST BOT 43000 FOR ONE OF MY CLIENTS -ON Y ADVICE AS A GOOD BUYING POINT.COULD BE PREMATURE -YOU NEVER KNOW.

To: JRI who wrote (36918)	4/7/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 176387

TO ALL THIS IS AN EXCELLENT POST from john rosser: (I wish everyone put this much into their posts...) >>It would appear that the last logical time in which Dell could announce potential problems meeting the 1Q number would be at Thursday's analyst meeting...It would seem highly unlikely (impossible) that Dell would say things are fine on Thurs, and then turnaround (before May 17) and say that the scenario has changed. Runs in the face of how the company has ran its business, treated the investment community over the last few years... I would even find it too "Compaqian" if Dell would announce trouble in meeting the number on Thurs......After all, on March 25 M.Topfer is quoted as saying that aggressive price wars will have little or no impact on earnings/sales forecasts, and that things are fine....To come out two weeks later and do a 180 degree announcement...To quote Lloyd Bentsen, "I know Dell, I've worked with Dell....and let me tell you......Dell aint no Compaq". Logically, I think there exists the room for the possibility that Dell could announce that 2Q will not be as good as analysts estimates, but I would not count on it......Even if this were to be the case, 2Q should represent the extent of any (potential) impact from CPQ's problems...2nd half should be excellent...with some of old channel stuff out of the way (CPQ's), Win 98 release, the new Intel chips, and the traditional improvement in 2nd half sales.....In fact, any selling in Dell in the 2Q due to Compaq's impact (or perceived impact) could be an excellent buying op for all longs.... However, I believe as many of you longs that odds are strong that Dell anticipated this price battle before CPQ even announced, has planned to offset with server/workstation, Asia/Europe growth, and internet sales effeciencies, and are executing the plan well. As well, I think all longs firmly believe MD when he says the channel isnt really where Dell plays anyway (and that its impact on sales/earnings is minimal)...Maybe in '95 one would have to take his word for that, but after the past three years, I think that there exists plenty of evidence that MD is right. In fact, if Dell comes thru 1Q and 2Q on target, wouldnt that be an incredibly bullish long-term argument for Dell? It would kill the aggressive price strategy competitve argument (that bears love to use) once and for all in my book....What (else) would be possibily derail the train over the next 2-3 yrs.? Y2K? Not Likely, in fact, probably a plus in sales (if anything)- servers, etc., sub-1000 PC's? If they are going to impact earnings, they would have done it by now (or latest 2Q '98). Overall market decline? In fact, if the market goes down, I would think that Dell would become a safehaven, being one of the few companies that meets and exceeds (consistently) high earnings estimates.....In a down market, people will (eventually) pay a premium for companies like Dell (after the initial selloff)...Dont even think a rise in rates from 6-7% would have a big impact on Dell, since Dell carries little or no debt, and has grown its stock price in such environments before...Maybe at 7% there could be some impact (shifting of some models from stocks to bonds), but I think the impact on Dell would be minimum..It will take an awful lot to shake the individual's confidence in the long-term direction of the market...The psychological war for individual investors minds has been won by stocks, and the liquidity is going to continue for a while.... Overall PC sales? The most reliable market analysts see continued strong growth over the next 3 (to 5) years.....Most of all, I think Dell is fundamentally stronger company now (then 3 years ago) due to their shift to workstation/servers, Asia/Europe, and internet sales growth.....These areas should offset any impending potential problems in PC growth, and, in fact, lead to even greater growth in margins and sales over the next few years.. Bears, I welcome all data-supported counterarguments...<<