Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LastShadow who wrote (7257)	4/7/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: b-witch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Apologies for asking what muct be an old question: How does one get onto RT Trader chat room? thanks...mitzi

To: LastShadow who wrote (7257)	4/7/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Market Outlook The market is flattening out and momentum is fatiguing, but liquidity and sector rotation will preclude any collapse in the short-term. Whether the flattening out is a topping for a moderate correction or a base for a run to a blowoff remains to be seen. I track 80 stocks across 6-7 sectors, and the collection has served well as overall indicators. My eyeball assessment of the spectrum of stocks often spots the overall trend and sentiment changes within a month or so. As an aside, the human mind is dominated by short-term memory. During Oct-Jan the market swooned and people denied the reality because of the summer rally. The market turned up in late Jan and, to this day, some people refuse to believe what the market is saying. And in the interim 4-5 sectors have rotated, the market is overextended but healthy for now. None of this matters much for daytrading, but it matters if one takes off for prolonged periods of fly fishing. Last, you still going fly fishing the rest of this week?

To: LastShadow who wrote (7257)	4/7/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

okay after mitzi directed me to the appropriate post...I can talk with some sensibility try to follow my thinking ...even though I know it isnt spelled out step by step...it never is with me Understand that what we are looking at in my post is the cumulatively compounded percentage gain - therefore, the market would necessatrily be down in order to support a substantial price rise of the equities. Does this make sense? The stock prices would be lower in order to generate the biggest % gain. So I believe that we are talking about the same thing. If the market dropped 200 points, would that not be a time to go long? okay here is what you are talking about in your first post The exchanges are traditionally closed for nine holidays. Data collected over the last 50 years has found that the two days prior to a holiday are very bullish. We suspect this is due to traders lightening up their short side to cover themselves against unexpected good news over the long weekend. Historically, ******the gains from just the pre holiday periods***** surpassed the gain by the market for the entire 50 years. At any rate, the cumulatively compounded percentage market gain for Good Friday is as follows: Day 1 (April 8) 7.3% Day 2 (April 9) 17.8% The plan would be to go long on any stock you are looking to enter early on either day.** this is what was in the back of my mind.... these two thoughts dont go hand in hand.... you can be down 100 points and be bullish at the end of the day....if it is only intraday down 100 points....and you buy at the low and you sell at the high because it is a bullish day (although would you call it a bullish day if it goes down 100 and comes back to down 50) this is different than saying..... the market is going to be down 100 points and its going to be a negative day... that is NOT A BULLISH DAY take today for instance...so far it is not a bullish day.....but if you bought now and we ended up in a bullish day..then you would make good money.... HL CAMP is saying these days are NEGATIVE whereas your source says POSITIVE they are opposed...as I see it.... true...one is using alot more historical data.... your source is using 50 years of data for more than just this holiday Camp is using limited data for JUST THIS HOLIDAY and I dont see how you can reconcile the two effects...either the day is bullish or bearish (or both are wrong and its flat) so I guess i am missing something

To: LastShadow who wrote (7257)	4/7/1998 2:28:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

A similar view on the market..with a slant towards daytrading. I love the stock market. What else is there to invest in? We have low inflation and low interest rates. I'm certainly not interested in low interest Treasury bonds. I think in 10 years DOW will be 25,000 and by then my son will be asked about DOW 26,000 and so on. BUT.... I think for daytraders and short term traders the possibilities for good profits are enormous. They can 'shop the sectors' and buy whatever is the sector that is currently in favor. They can search beyond the 'overpriced big board issues' to companies with spectacular earnings going forward. Believe me there are small cap and medium cap companies that are enjoying good profit margins, just as the large cap and selected technology stocks are 'warning' about profits. Earnings estimates are being cut throughout the large cap tech sector but earnings estimates are being "RAISED" on other companies in various sectors. The key will be in 'stock selection'. If you carefully search among all the stocks out there, you will find the companies with explosive growth or even just a nice steady gain quarter after quarter. I do think that the short term will be punctuated by lots of volatility. I still won't hold option positions for more than a week, but that is because options are not assets and can not be depended on indefinitely. I won't 'take home' stocks when a nice profit (1 1/2+) can be taken unless I'm convinced the trend can continue. I see that there are long term and extremely short term gains to be made (1-3 days as well as 1 year holds) I just want to profit on both ends.

To: LastShadow who wrote (7257)	4/7/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: TonyM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Hi! I am curious about your thoughts on your use of 50 year average data to characterize holiday effects as compared to using only six month data for your daily and weekly watch lists. (I recall that you use daily data on the order of that length of time for your watchlists.) Wouldn't the factors that bias/corrupt old numbers for a single ticker also corrupt old data for the market as a whole? Am I missing a fundamental consideration/assumption in the use of either set of predictors? Tony