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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Lawrence who wrote (14594)	4/8/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: Moonray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

Analysts: Business Computer Use Will Shift to Networks From PCs San Diego, California, April 7 -- The bulk of business computer use and software development will shift away from desktop personal computers to mobile computer networks within five years, yet that won't help sales of network computers, analysts told an information technology conference here. Corporate workers now access business software applications mostly through programs made by Microsoft Corp. and IBM Corp., which are designed primarily for desktop PC use. By 2002 though, most new applications will be targeted at workers using laptop and palmtop computers, Internet-connected cellular phones and other mobile devices, George Gilder of Gilder Technology Group Inc. told an audience at Gartner Group Predicts. ''The CPU (desktop computer) will become more peripheral as the network becomes central,'' to the development of business applications, Gilder said. That trend likely will benefit Cisco Systems Inc. and other computer networking companies who make the bulk of Internet equipment. The need for mobility, though, will prevent the market for network computers, or NCs, from becoming widespread. Sales of NCs, which have been pushed aggressively by database software maker Oracle Corp., haven't taken off because of the wide availability of PCs costing under $1,000. ''Network computers won't happen, but network computing will,'' said Bill McNee, director of research with Stamford, Connecticut-based Gartner Group Inc. Instead of using wired connections, business computer users will link to main offices and customers using wireless microwave technology, McNee said. ''They'll choose to be independent,'' he said. Bandwidth Problem Randy Brasche, a spokesman for Network Computer Inc., a separate affiliate of Oracle and Netscape Communications Corp., acknowledged that ''the ramp-up is taking longer than expected.'' Yet it is cautious purchasing decisions by network managers, not cheap PCs, that is slowing NC adoption, Brasche said. ''We're still bullish on this market,'' he said. One factor that may slow the spread of network computing, mobile or desktop, is the so-called bandwidth problem. Burgeoning Internet traffic is straining the capacity of the network and slowing the transfer of voice, data and video it carries. ''The main communication corridors (within the Internet) are under severe bandwidth constraints,'' said John Coons, an analyst with Dataquest Inc. Coons said the best solution for the immediate future is dense wavelength division multiplexing, or DWDM, a technology that splits traffic on fiber-optic networks into different wavelengths and increases its capacity. Telecommunication providers are switching to fiber-optic networks and adopting DWDM technology, said McNee. He predicted network capacity will increase by 35 to 40 percent annually during the next five years. ''Bandwidth will be plentiful,'' by 2002, McNee said. This would seem to be right up 3COM's alley. o~~~ O