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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ronald Paul who wrote (3013)	4/7/1998 10:41:00 PM
From: Allen Benn	Respond to of 10309

>Evolution of the RTOS market is what will buy Billy time. You are correct. This is why I have been hoping that MWAR, INTS and others quickly discover they should use their embedded systems talent to become top-notch service companies agnostic about operating systems. INTS seems to be moving exactly in that direction with recent announcements about Doctor Design and, of course, the infamous Windows CE deal. This sector needs to consolidate around a standard, de facto RTOS, and stop fighting the RTOS wars. >The RTOS industry will go through a shakeout, but not before it is truly commoditized. The first part is true; the second is a issue you and I don't agree about fully. Connoditized means that decisions about RTOS usage are based primarily on price alone. I think there is a lot more to it than that, now and maybe forever. >Billy did take earlier notice of his vulnerability in this market than he did when >Netscape broadsided him. That is absolutely correct. However, he has yet to accomplish much with his early awareness. By the way, his awareness of embedded systems actually goes back many, many years-even before the Microsoft At Work fiasco. Rumor has it Microsoft tried to buy Microware years ago, and was turned down by Kaplan. >This is the MSFT business model. Scare companies into partnering with your >vision of the computer world on your terms only ... or else! I have confession about this in regard to INTS. In a previous post I referred to INTS as being sycophantic in sucking up to Microsoft about Windows CE. That was harsh and inappropriate. These kinds of deals are exactly what INTS should be pursuing, including making similar deals with WIND. Having said that, my heart goes out to INTS. Last week INTS believed it shot a bear by cuddling up to Microsoft, which was reflected in its improved stock price. The very next week they get screwed big time by Microsoft, with the real-time upgrade announcement, and the stock plummets. Thanks partner. >As the shakeout really takes hold, WIND may not be at the pinnacle, >but it will survive as one of the big-three IMO. One of the earliest concerns on this thread was about how the industry would consolidate into Winner-take-all, two, three or more players? A decision was not reached then, and probably we can't do it perfectly yet. However, it seems that when the dust clears, Microsoft will be a player, particularly at the high-end and extremely low-volume, low-quality, throw-it-together systems. WIND should dominate the deeply embedded space. INTS may continue to be a significant player, and maybe not. Keep up the good thinking. Allen