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To: Exciton who wrote (52372)	4/7/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 186894

Exciton, Are you allowing for binsplit at .25u? A good percentage of the .25u material could have shipped as 266mhz parts. Did you include this in your numbers? EP

To: Exciton who wrote (52372)	4/7/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: Time Traveler	Respond to of 186894

Exiton, Thanks for taking that initiative to calculate the yield on 0.25um K6. K6 on 0.35um is 162 mm^2, and K6 on 0.25um is only 68 mm^2. Is the factor of 1.4 you used strictly based on die size? Have you noticed the design rule of K6 on 0.25um is even more aggressive than 0.35um, given that the die shrunk being not proportional to technology (0.25 / 0.35)^2? John.

To: Exciton who wrote (52372)	4/8/1998 1:10:00 AM
From: Time Traveler	Respond to of 186894

Message 3996044

To: Exciton who wrote (52372)	4/8/1998 2:56:00 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 186894

Exciton, yield estimate of 8% is, as you said, a little pessimistic, even as an AVERAGE yield. 1. You forget that it takes 2-3 months, lets say, 10 weeks to fabricate a CPU in the complex 5-layer AMD process after the "wafer start." 2. From mid-October to mid-January, wafer starts were mostly at the SDC facility, not Fab25, started at close to zero wafers per week and ended at no more than 500 wafers per week. (Max capacity used at SDC was 500 wafers per week). Probably another 1K wafers were started at Fab 25 in January that were completed in the first quarter. 3. If we say they averaged 250 wafers per week, then over 13 weeks they started 3,250 wafers plus the 1,000 started at Fab 25, for a total of 4,250 wafers, and average of 360 wafers per week. There's 350 candidate CPU's per wafer, so thats 1.49M potential CPU's. 4. "More than 10%" of a little over 1.5M CPU's means there was 160,000 0.25 CPU's sold. But I'm pretty sure they also said that there were "hundreds of thousands" of K6 0.25's produced, so taking 0.2M as the right number, the average yield is 0.20/1.49 = 13% 5. 13% sounds pretty stinky, but what matters is what the CURRENT yield is. At least 3 analysts have stated in their reports that it is close to 50%. This is confirmed by the statement in CC that greater than two thirds of the 0.25 CPU's were from Fab 25. (0.67200,000 / (1000 wafers 350))= 38%. 6. If we assume the analysts are right, then for Q2 there will be 4 times as many K6's from 0.25u process because of the yield improvement (50% vs 13%), and 4 times as many again because the 'wafer rate' is now 1500 per week compared to 360 per week. (Actually its the average wafer rate from mid January to mid April, and thats probably only 1000 per week, a 2.8:1 improvement.) 7. All told then, we should expect about 0.20M x (50/13) x (1000/360) K6's produced using the 0.25 process in 2Q'98, or roughly 2.1 million. Petz