Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (18417)	4/8/1998 8:02:00 AM
From: Teddy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

RE: "positive earnings revisions" i don't like that at all, i'd rather they lowered them so we could beat them easier. Don't they know that these companies will be out of business in less than a year? BTW, where do you get that data? you must pay for it, right? Thanks for sharing.

To: RGinPG who wrote (18417)	4/8/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

That's the way it's supposed to be right? Ron, we've talked about earnings revisions before. What you are seeing in these revisions are several things at once. If you are playing this game with long positions only, then I would use the information this way. First, the land drillers got their estimates whacked when the price of crude fell and there was a considerable concern about the discretionary cash flow available to the smaller E&P companies. Consequently land drillers that are having their earnings estimates raised should go on the "watch" list for establishment of long positions. In the longer view, if/when the price of crude starts to recover, you should be looking for the strongest companies in that sector for the easiest money later on. When the tide turns the money flows into the strongest names first IMO. Second, you are seeing company guidance in a limited number of cases (HMAR and MIND) are examples. Or subject to a news event. In this case, you have to determine if the problem is a temporary situation or a permanent screwup on the company's part or is it just a case where the company is being painted with the problems of another company in the same area. For example is HMAR's screwup (temporary) applicable to TMAR? Third, you are seeing some normal adjustments in the numbers as models are readjusted given new information. This would account for the -2% to +2% changes. Not much information in these small changes unless you have better information that would lead you to believe the company is about to pull an "earnings surprise". FGII might be an example there. Last. If you really want to provide some really good information, try also posting the high, low, std.dev. and median estimate with the number of analysts responding. The average is too easily influenced by one analysts with a far out number. A shift of 5% is a much bigger deal if the previous set of estimates was tight with a large number of analysts vs. 2 analysts with a wide range on their "guesstimates". BTW, this is useful information even as presented depending if you are going long or short depending on how you interpret the information. My "spin" is obviously only one way to look at what you have presented. Thanks. BTW, I am done buying in this area until/if the land drillers start to look more promising or they sell off again toward the March 17th level. Easier money in the fast ethernet and ATM chip area, where people are starting to believe we are never going to need components to go into all those boxes being sold to build the internet.

To: RGinPG who wrote (18417)	4/8/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Teddy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

NEWS snips from Offshore Data: sorry, i didn't have time to write the notes tonights. If a company is mentioned here, just plan on it gapping down 5% tomorrow, then selling off from there. U.S. GULF: Jackup ROWAN-JUNEAU is expected to complete its contract with Shell around April 15. The rig will then go to Brazos Block A-7 for a well with Newfield Exploration. U.S. GULF: Sundowner Offshore workover jackup DOLPHIN 111 will begin a six-month contract with American Resources on May 1. The rig was recently released by Chevron and is in Sabine Pass, Texas, undergoing repairs. U.S. GULF: ENSCO is expected to sign a contract shortly for jackup ENSCO 87. The rig's current contract with Apache ends soon. VENEZUELA/U.S. GULF: PVDSA will release jackup CLIFFS DRILLING later this month. The rig will mobilize to the U.S. Gulf for a short yard program. On completion, the rig will begin a Cliffs Drilling turnkey contract with Nomeco, work originally assigned to jackup CLIFFS DRILLING 180. U.S. GULF: Exxon Co. USA will construct a Deep Draft Caisson Vessel to develop its deepwater Hoover and Diana prospects in the Gulf of Mexico. The $1.2 billion project, which will be developed 4,800 feet waters, will establish a new world water depth record for a drilling and production platform with an associated subsea development. Utilization of surface production trees in this water depth also will be an industry first. The DDCV production vessel is scheduled to be installed in Atwater Valley Block 26 in 1999, with production beginning the following year. Hoover and Diana contain estimated recoverable resources exceeding 300 million oil-equivalent barrels. AFRICA: Global Marine drillship GLOMAR ROBERT F. BAUER completed the Padouck-1 well for Arco off Gabon. The rig is now en route to Egypt for a two-month contract with BG E&P. The rig is expected to arrive in Egypt on April 23. The rig will return to West Africa in July for contracts with Agip Petroleum and Marathon. AUSTRALIA: Northern Offshore drillship NORTHERN EXPLORER 3 is on location for Premier in the Bass Strait off Australia and is due to spud the first of two wells plus one option soon. The rig is under contract through early July. INDONESIA: R&B Falcon drillship FALCON ICE was released by Arco Indonesia and began a one-well contract with BG Indonesia. The rig is expected to complete its current contract with BG in late June. AUSTRALIA/SINGAPORE: Santa Fe jackup PARAMESWARA is expected to depart Australia around mid-May for transfer to Singapore before beginning an eight- well plus one-well option contract with Petronas Carigali off Vietnam around August. Dockwise heavy lift vessel MIGHTY SERVANT 1 will carry the rig from Adelaide to Singapore. INDIA: ONGC jackup SAGAR SHAKTI is due to have leg repairs starting shortly. The rig, which had a blowout recently, is expected to return to service in May.