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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (10969)	4/8/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

IOW tripling my LEAP position yesterday was a good idea but premature, because I will be able buy them cheaper today? As long as a LEAP position is concerned, you are really no need to worry about because it's a long long time before it expires. Everyday is a new day and nobody knows what will be up or down today or tomorrow and hence it's a relative value as you enter the market. Once you are in, you should have no regret for your decision. The fundamental value of each stock is based on their future perspectives and earning trends. I think Apple's earnings will be improving at least for the rest of '98. Beyond '98, there are involved too many variables and it tends to be unreliable especially for the tech stocks. Phil

To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (10969)	4/8/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

IOW tripling my LEAP position yesterday was a good idea but premature, because I will be able buy them cheaper today? Yesterday at $25 was a local buying opportunity according to my TA system. After 9 or 10 trading days of extreme weakness in the trend it signals a turning point towards the upside. This is just when the moving averages are diving faster. This is good news. PS Can you explain to me what exactly you did with these options? What is it that caused you to re-evaluate the fair value, exactly? As I said in my previous message the analysts are gradually raising their forecasts for 98 and 99. Based on their new forecasts and the CAPM model one would be prepared to pay $35 now instead of $30. Now if the people on this thread are right earnings for Q2 will be even better than that and then according to the model fair value is even higher. Anyone saying AAPL is overvalued on current forecasts seems to be wrong. This is also good news. I'm a bit less worried about AAPL now. These two paragraphs show how my economic approach works. In the long-run I'm looking at the fundamental value, however in the short-run deviations from that can be explained by pure time series analysis- the deviations are definitely not random unlike what the efficient market hypothesis people think. David