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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (1518)	4/8/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: EPS	Respond to of 22640

Local view of market action: ----------------------------------- One day before the Easter Holidays, the Sao Paulo stock exchange continues to trade slow, although it reverted its trend and is now higher by 0.69%. Investor, as reported this morning, are expecting the session to be marked by volatility and low volume. As a result Brazilian shares are likely to rise moderately during the day. However, this scenario can change depending on the performance of the Dow as investors think local stocks to be linked to the events in the New York stock exchange. "I can't see anyone willing to build a major position going into the Holiday, specially with all the risks we have in Japan," one trader said to AP-Dow Jones. The Ibovespa index is now up 0.69% at 11,928 points. Trading volume is at US$189.281m with some 13.103m shares having changed hands. The Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange Index (IBV-RJ) is also higher by 0.13% at 42,193 points. Telebr s PN/US$ up 0.55% at R$142.00. Eletrobr s up 0.74% at R$54.70. CVRD PN/US$ also higher by 0.40% at R$27.81. The US commercial dollar opened the day on hopes again of a mini-adjustment by the Central Bank (BC) as analysts were starting to worry since the month was getting close to its second working week and only one adjustment had been made so far. However, the (BC) has just announced it finally conducted another adjustment in the inner-band of 0.09%, allowing the Real to range between R$1.1390 (floor)/R$1.1440 (ceiling) to the US dollar. The Central Bank last adjusted the wider-band on January 20, shifting it upward from US$1.05/US$1.14, where it had been for nearly a year. In relation to the floating dollar segment, banks began the day working with an accumulated deficit of around US$300m (-US$86m yesterday). Bankers are still waiting for an official explanation to BCs computer system (Sisbacen), which had registered an outflow of US$457m. Even though the correct figure is not as of yet known, the confusion may have been originated by a recently approved operation, in which resources from investment funds may now be transferred to the foreign capital funds, as reported by the BFW yesterday. The market was expecting a correction of these figures by the end of yesterday's session. However, that number continues to show in the BC's computer system today. After the inner-band adjustment, the US commercial dollar Ptax is now trading at R$1.1391/R$1.1390. (By Marcos Viesi and Paulo Monteiro)

To: EPS who wrote (1518)	4/8/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: DMaA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Damn, I was always going to learn Spanish some day. Now I'll have to some day learn Portuguese too.

To: EPS who wrote (1518)	4/8/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Victor, an attempt at an English version of your post. Are they saying we'll see 145 soon. This was my high projection for May. IMO, this stock will bolt sometime soon. Maybe we'll get the big bounce on Monday, after their holidays. Sounds like we may get some good news out of Japan between now and then. Maybe oughta pick up some more of those 125's or May 125's. sf ============================== Magazine Investment (Investment Journal) gives opinion on shorts term creaks (price in in real) TELEBRAS PN the high one came back to be clear, pushing the prices and attracting more aggressive salesmen. Now, it must possibly have acomoda‡ao for new profit of forces. Great volatileness however nao discards also the continuity of oscila‡oes. R$ 176 with good bed tested in the neighborhoods of R$ 163 will be trying the disruption now where stated period can be recommended to the purchase in curt¡ssimo. In case of bigger pessimismo, another area more below where surely it will bring excellent resulted now will be in the height of R$ 150 therefore from there the foreigners who had lost the recent fort high movement of estarao gifts. Of the optimistical side, lockings above of R$ 176, poderao to take the prices entao for the neighborhoods of R$ 181 (profits each time more delinquents). In short term, the aggressiveness of the high gift will be able to still last and R$ 181 is vizualizados as now attainable goal. New

To: EPS who wrote (1518)	4/8/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: EPS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

.........was evident pushing prices and attracting the more agressive buyers. Now, probably there will have to be some consolidation in order to attain new gains. The implied volatility will probably give rise to big price oscillations. It will try to break R$ 176 with good support in the area of R$ 163, where it can be recommended in the very short term.. A alta voltou a ficar patente, empurrando os pre‡os e atraindo mais agressivos vendedores. Agora, possivelmente dever haver acomoda‡ao para novo ganho de for‡as. A volatilidade no entanto nao descarta tamb‚m a continuidade de grandes oscila‡oes. Estar tentando o rompimento agora a R$ 176 com bom suporte testado nas proximidades dos R$ 163 onde pode ser recomendada a compra no curt¡ssimo prazo. Em caso de maior pessimismo, outra rea mais abaixo onde seguramente trar excelentes resultados agora ser na altura dos R$ 150 pois a partir da¡ os estrangeiros que perderam o recente forte movimento de alta estarao presentes. Do lado otimista, fechamentos acima dos R$ 176, poderao levar os pre‡os entao para as proximidades dos R$ 181 (ganhos cada vez mais marginais). No curto prazo, a agressividade da presente alta poder ainda perdurar e os R$ 181 ficam vizualizados como meta agora ating¡vel.

To: EPS who wrote (1518)	4/8/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: EPS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Part II (very informal translation) The more pessimistic scenario.. an area where one could obtain excellent results would be @R$150 since the foreigners that recently lost the upward move will step in..On the optimistic side, closing over $R176 could lead to prices to R$181 with diminishing returns from there on. In an even more optimistic note for the short term the current bullishness could continue even in the R$181 area Em caso de maior pessimismo, outra rea mais abaixo onde seguramente trar excelentes resultados agora ser na altura dos R$ 150 pois a partir da¡ os estrangeiros que perderam o recente forte movimento de alta estarao presentes. Do lado otimista, fechamentos acima dos R$ 176, poderao levar os pre‡os entao para as proximidades dos R$ 181 (ganhos cada vez mais marginais). No curto prazo, a agressividade da presente alta poder ainda perdurar e os R$ 181 ficam vizualizados como meta agora ating¡vel.