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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (1519)	4/8/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: jeremy smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

re. Motta...David, I agree with you in that all the the key work in respect of the TBR sell-off has already been done (for which Motta should take most of the credit). we are thus at the point where his personal involvement is no longer even necessary to the success of the mission. Whilst this is true, it misses the main issue. Sergio Motta has been (and continues to be) one of President's Cardoso's most prominent supporters in the multi-party government coalition. His input has been key to securing cross party support to much of Cardoso's reform programme. Take him out of the picture, and what we have left is a much less effective Cardoso, and thus a much harder job at pushing through the central reform platform. Not impossible, just much harder, I therefore view the whole Motta topic as a "macro" issue, and not a TBR-specific issue. The good news in all this is of course that with every fresh headline and "alarm" that sounds on this, more and more of thre potential damage is being discounted. There is no question in my mind though that on any eventual announcement of Motta's departure, the market would take a hit. But I equally believe that it would bounce back very quickly. Barring other events, and as far as the Motta saga goes, the risk of being out of the stock is far greater than that of owning it right now. Jeremy