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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (52448)	4/8/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul, I just posted the Morgan Stanley upgrade, doesn't mean I believe the forecast. The only analyst I have any faith in is Lehman Bros., and not too much! I like Intel as a company; it's people and it's products better than AMD. But I'm trying to invest intelligently and I think emotion is a deadly sin. I appreciate all info that is based on fact, logic and experience. That means the good and the bad. Eleven months ago I posted here that I thought "Intel is entering a new era." I cited the impact AMD and Cyrix were about to make on the low-end market, and the abnormally steep decline in CPU prices. I predicted the ASP for PC shipments would start dropping and I didn't see this trend ever changing. I posted a number of times that I thought Intel should attack AMD with socket 7 products and beat them at their own game. This meant lower margins on the product, which Intel resists with a passion. But guess what, Intel's margins are going down anyway. Of course the emotional response from some was that I didn't know what I was talking about. Back when Compaq and IBM decided to enter the untapped market with low- priced machines, I have to believe they would have preferred to do it with Intel. But it appears Intel had no stomach for this market, and AMD and Cyrix got their foot in the door. (BTW, I also think Cyrix/NSM is going to be the big loser in this game). Even when AMD was unable to support the market I think Intel continued to ignore it. I think IBM did what they had to do, make sure AMD was a viable supplier in this market. In a way, I think Intel is helping make AMD successful through their inaction. There were many opportunities to "Crush" them. As PC World pointed out, Intel could easily come out with a socket 7 P55C/333 on 0.25 micron, with a 100mHz FSB, and competitively priced against AMD. What choice do you think Compaq, IBM, et al would have if they did? And if they switched to Intel, what would happen to AMD? I know, you'll tell me that's what Celeron and Mendocino address, but even if they are successful competitors, at what price and margin? You told me the P55C/333 is too competitive with PII for Intel to support it. Well the K6/300 is also competitive, and Intel doesn't make it. Like I said 11 months ago, Intel is entering a new era. Have they made the right adjustments?