To: Oeconomicus who wrote (9479 ) 4/8/1998 10:21:00 PM From: William Vu Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 27307
To All: some comments on YHOO: -If you pay close attention to the numbers, and make a calculation, then you will be shocked to see that YHOO's revenue rate drops quite fast. And I regard revenue as the most crucial indicator of YHOO business at this early stage. So, you know that revenue this quarter is $30 mil, the same time last year was $10 mil, and last quarter was $25 mil. Question: What was the revenue growth rates for four previous quarters? An illustrative answer is: 44.3%, 44.3%, 20%, 20%. If the trend is to continue, YHOO revenue after one year is less than $50 mil. -For such a minuscule earning, it is easy to manipulate the number. The earning number, expressed in "percentage" of beating estimates, is very deceitful. -YHOO management is very skilled in hyping the stock. Most of the internet companies do this, but I observe that YHOO is extraordinary talented at hyping (in particular, they used the exclamation mark (!) in the company name so energetically!). Just read all their press releases and you will observe this easily. They use the same tactics as, say, that used by "Onsale": misleading and deceiving statistics, rhetorics,... which of course easily mislead the naive and ignorant individual investors, and sometimes also some fund managers (there are all kinds of). - The current price of YHOO is, of course, the result of all this hype and manipulation. Today earning release is not a surprice to those who understand the business of YHOO but of course will be maximally exploited by the company to hype the price of the stock further. The Internet, of course, will become increasingly important in people life, and Yahoo is doing a great service in this field, as many other Internet companies. However, what Yahoo has done in the Internet is nothing extraordinary. Competition will be severe, sources of revenue are not clear yet, and if will be, will be divided by fast increasing number of players. People will eventually realize this, and the reality will set in, sooner rather than later. William