Plentiful bandwidth in 2002 according to Gartner Group
Very bullish article for networkers (borrowed from COMS thread)
[I guess this contradicts the 1999 unlimited bandwidth "analysis"...]
Excerpts:
"One factor that may slow the spread of network computing,
mobile or desktop, is the so-called bandwidth problem. Burgeoning
Internet traffic is straining the capacity of the network and
slowing the transfer of voice, data and video it carries.
''The main communication corridors (within the Internet) are
under severe bandwidth constraints,'' said John Coons, an analyst
with Dataquest Inc.
"''Bandwidth will be plentiful,'' by 2002, McNee said."
exchange2000.com
To: David Lawrence (14594 )
From: Moonray
Wednesday, Apr 8 1998 9:31AM ET
Reply # of 14646
Analysts: Business Computer Use Will Shift to Networks From PCs
San Diego, California, April 7 -- The bulk of business
computer use and software development will shift away from
desktop personal computers to mobile computer networks within
five years, yet that won't help sales of network computers,
analysts told an information technology conference here.
Corporate workers now access business software applications
mostly through programs made by Microsoft Corp. and IBM Corp.,
which are designed primarily for desktop PC use.
By 2002 though, most new applications will be targeted at
workers using laptop and palmtop computers, Internet-connected
cellular phones and other mobile devices, George Gilder of Gilder
Technology Group Inc. told an audience at Gartner Group Predicts.
''The CPU (desktop computer) will become more peripheral as
the network becomes central,'' to the development of business
applications, Gilder said.
That trend likely will benefit Cisco Systems Inc. and other
computer networking companies who make the bulk of Internet
equipment. The need for mobility, though, will prevent the market for network computers, or NCs, from becoming widespread. Sales of NCs, which have been pushed aggressively by database software
maker Oracle Corp., haven't taken off because of the wide
availability of PCs costing under $1,000.
''Network computers won't happen, but network computing
will,'' said Bill McNee, director of research with Stamford,
Connecticut-based Gartner Group Inc.
Instead of using wired connections, business computer users
will link to main offices and customers using wireless microwave
technology, McNee said. ''They'll choose to be independent,'' he said.
Bandwidth Problem
Randy Brasche, a spokesman for Network Computer Inc., a
separate affiliate of Oracle and Netscape Communications Corp.,
acknowledged that ''the ramp-up is taking longer than expected.''
Yet it is cautious purchasing decisions by network managers,
not cheap PCs, that is slowing NC adoption, Brasche said.
''We're still bullish on this market,'' he said.
One factor that may slow the spread of network computing,
mobile or desktop, is the so-called bandwidth problem. Burgeoning
Internet traffic is straining the capacity of the network and
slowing the transfer of voice, data and video it carries.
''The main communication corridors (within the Internet) are
under severe bandwidth constraints,'' said John Coons, an analyst
with Dataquest Inc.
Coons said the best solution for the immediate future is
dense wavelength division multiplexing, or DWDM, a technology
that splits traffic on fiber-optic networks into different
wavelengths and increases its capacity.
Telecommunication providers are switching to fiber-optic
networks and adopting DWDM technology, said McNee. He predicted
network capacity will increase by 35 to 40 percent annually
during the next five years.
''Bandwidth will be plentiful,'' by 2002, McNee said. |
