To: Anthony Ostroski who wrote (154 ) 4/9/1998 12:14:00 AM From: Neil Kalton Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 395
Anthony, Difficult to set price targets on these internet plays as once they get some momentum anything is possible, i.e., ELNK 8 to 66, MSPG 8 to 72, etc. Right now I'm using the P/S ratio as a comparative indicator. Many ISP's have P/S ratios of about 8-10. In calculating OZEMY's P/S ratio I have decided to remove the approx. $6 million in revenues from the on-time license fee for Interline. After removing this gain OZEMY's P/S ratio stands at about 5.5 based on today's closing price. While OZEMY's revenue growth isn't as impressive as MSPG, ELNK, and CNCX's it has its hands in many other potentially lucrative endeavors: Internet telephony with Interline, databroadcasting, e-commerce, popular ANZWERS search engine creating advertising revenue, etc. Given all of these factors I don't see any reason why OZEMY shouldn't be valued in line with its American peers. Therefore, I have a 3-6 month price target of 30-35 and a 12-18 month target of 50-60 (assuming revenue growth of about 50% this year). These targets may prove to be overly optimistic, but the more I research into OZEMY the more I'm convinced that OZEMY is quite a big deal down under. The management obviously has lofty global aspirations and if they are successful in implementing their strategies SH's who hold on for a few years will have enormous gains. -nk P.S. Using SI posts as a barometer of investor awareness in a company I would have to say that OZEMY is still flying under the radar screen. The stock is up nearly 30% this week and only 4 different people have posted. IMO, this is a bullish indicator (now if only Furman Selz would publicly initiate their coverage of this stock ... Hmmm, wonder if its their clients who have been buying this week...)