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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (6641)	4/9/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Timoteo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I shorted YHOO yesterday @ 98. Ultimately YHOO must generate a profit regardless of page views where few people read the ads. Though they have promising joint efforts with telecoms and banks YHOO must make a significant amount of money from advertising. To justify its current market cap, it needs to increase ad revenue 10 to 20 fold to have anything approaching a reasonable valuation. Their growth numbers indicate this is highly unlikely IMO. Best Wishes, Timoteo

To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (6641)	4/9/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18691

Bob, I covered my yhoo short back at the beginning of this run up. Revenues, earnings, and competition, or any other fundamentals do not matter at all for yhoo. It is purely a tulip mania trading on greater fool theory and we have not run out of fools yet. It will crash hard some day, but could easily go to $200 or much more first. We must be very careful shorting yhoo and jump out of the way when it goes up. Hopefully we will be able to guess the top and short, but it will be hard to get in as the top will be very short lived. Look at the two year chart of ZITL to see a typical mania trading pattern.