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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (31644)	4/9/1998 4:58:00 PM
From: Dchapman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573531

Dan RE: plus it gets overly complicated and you dont want to be confused in options trading.. trust me.. thank you for the warning. I still have few minor questions. 1)don't you need to know the target in order to build your process (or pricing) and not other way around -)) Option type, and time to expiration is known, then figure profit for the target. Type of option is restricted due to rules. 2)what do you mean by "complex math"? Dont use schotastics, bollenger, MA, etc.. etc... I keep it simple for target forcasting.. 3)And about "If it works dont mess with it.." - I assume since you are planning to charge for your service then it did not work well enough -)) The stock price target calculation used in the option price tool works fine, it is calculated off line and values are uploaded. It is so complicated and I wrote it so long ago and it has worked so great so I dont intended to mess with it.. 4)"that formula is also a custom thing, not black schoals, better" - that is no big deal to improve on Black-Scholes (helps to know how to spell if you want to give an advice on option trading) yet there are not many who did. - improved on it several years ago(one summer) when I was into all that technical math and neural nets for trading. Havent changed it since. 5)" i dont care if time+volit premium " - you are the 1st option trader who is not concerned with volatility. I would love to learn about your concepts more *-)) - yes its amazing how many people worry about the small things and forget the main goal. Profit. Its like the guy how puts a limit order in for that extra 1/16 but then misses the rally.. I have done that plenty before. Dont get me wrong I used to worry about that stuff and more (ie gamma, etc..) but that was a while ago. 6)"A profit of 100-200% is not bad per trade," - would not it depend on risk. You know if you win 200% once and loose 100% 10 times that would not be that good :-)) - Well thats solved by the power of a sound system from the start. I find system after system online that only stresses the picks, well thats not good enough, youll get killed betting on just getting good picks. Hey I only average being right with a profit >75% only 33% of the time, but do pretty well so it must be the system not the picks.. So in the end work on your system first then improve the stock picking aspects. dan TIA -Albert

To: AK2004 who wrote (31644)	4/10/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: john filo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573531

> 2) what do you mean by complex math well, i'm not sure what dan means by complex math, but with my recent trading patterns, complex math has proven itself to be a very handy tool to describe my profits and losses. i use the real part to represent my profits and the imaginary part to represent my losses. now, since all my losses are imaginary, i sleep much better at night. a word of caution to those of you not familiar with the subtleties of complex math. this scheme can backfire, and you wind up 90 degrees out of phase, with your profits being imaginary and your loses painfully real. this is my current situation. to overcome these limitations, i'm currently working on a more sophisticated system using polar math in which theta represents profits and r represents losses. this way, as my losses pile up, they move further out along the vector represented by <r, theta>, giving the appearance of being constant. Having theta represent profits improves the illusion by making any losses spin wildly around me, making it more difficult to focus on them. once i get all the details worked out, i plan on coding up the rules in a wiz-bang 3d java applet to help visualize where all my money is disappearing to. i hope to have it done in time for the release of the k6 3d, so i can sell it to jerry sanders to show off the amazing 3d capabilities of the new chip.