To: Joey Smith who wrote (31649 ) 4/9/1998 6:23:00 PM From: Maverick Respond to of 1570175
Has AMD turned corner?, part II lthough analysts had previously predicted higher pricing, the 300-MHz K6 will sell for $246 and the 266-MHz part will sell for $156, in quantities of 1,000. The company will add 350 MHz and 400 MHz parts in the third and fourth quarter, respectively. For the "classic" K6, 400 MHz will be about as fast as the chip will go, Sanders said. But by the second half of 1998, the majority of processor shipments will be from AMD's next-generation K6 3D, he added. The problems experienced in the 0.35-micron generation would not be repeated in future 0.25-micron production, he said. A particular mask step in AMD's 0.35-micron CS34EX process was "unpredictable," according to Sanders. Since that step was restricted to the 0.35-micron equipment, the new 0.25 lines do not replicate that variable, and thus have more predictable yields. For now, AMD may be able to place its manufacturing issues on the back burner. However, restoring its reputation will take some time. For example, a potential AMD notebook customer, CyberMax Computer, has halted all K6-based desktop and notebook products. CyberMax executives did not return repeated calls for comment. In addition, Sanders disclosed that production issues had halted Compaq's K6-based notebook PCs. However, Sanders said he didn't think any of those relationships were beyond redemption. But AMD's reputation also has a direct impact on its future revenue levels. The average price of the K6 declined from $120 to $106 in the first quarter, Sanders said. AMD will maintain its 25 percent discount versus Intel processors with comparable performance, even on the K6 3D. But what is comparable performance? "Sanders said a couple of times that he considers comparable performance to be a Pentium II, not a Celeron," Lins said. "It's almost a marketing issue. Performance comparisons can be very complex." Going forward, Sanders said he anticipated the processor to have an average selling price (ASP), over the long term, of about $100. "I think the K6 will be compared against Celeron," said Jonathan Joseph, analyst with Nationsbanc Montgomery Securities, in San Francisco. "It's just believed to be a lower-performing part."