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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (3009)	4/13/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Tommaso... I too bought into Erdman's gold thesis and lost...lost... lost lots of money. To be fair to Erdman he was not the only voice at the time saying what he did. James Goldsmith was doing, saying the same things-- for instance. I, personally, don't see much pick up in demand in Asia for oil in the next two years: in a deflatioinary scenario...demand flat lines at best but what we've seen is a radical downturn in oil consumption. If Japan craters...that will really dampen demand. In reference to your ideas about Japanese investment in oil. I believe that Japan has substantial investments in Kuewait. They had substantial investments in Iran. In my opinion the natural affinity for Korean money and Japanese money... will be the irrestistable magnet of Siberian energy resoruces. However, since Peking, Bankok and Delhi to name three random large cities are almost uninhabitable from pollution - at this moment- my bet would be in three to five years the new battery technologies coming on line. Governemnt's giving substantial incentives to battery car makers. The oilies eating it. The gasp...electorate...by then will then have realized that...gasp...there might be an alternative to eating emissions...gasp....that all these cars are killing them. Wheeze. These places in Asia can't get much worse. Last time I was in Delhi I could barely see across the wide street.