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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (43521)	4/10/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Dennis I know it is your style to start an on going discussion about an issue for about 10 or so posts. Yes,... only when uninformed fools see fit to argue the facts... But here is the math: If CSCO is growing from a base of $6.4 Billion its quarter rate is $1.6 B. And you said they are headed to $8 B. Well then they are $2 b short of 20% per quarter growth. $1.6 B run rate compounded for 4 quarters is $10.3 B. Tell them to send to missing $2.3 B to my house! Duh...... First the obvious. 1.6B is an average for the year. So you can't compound. You can only do the straight math which would result in a quarter avg. of $1.92B...or $7.68B for the year... Now the real facts... FY 97 Q1 97 $1.430B Q2 97 $1.592B Q3 97 $1.653B Q4 97 $1.765B FY 97 $6.440B FY 98 Q1 98 $1.869B (31% growth rate) Q2 98 $2.016B (27$ growth rate) figuring a 25% rate for Q3/4 Q3 98 $2.066B (est.) Q4 98 $2.206B (est.) FY 98 $8.157b (est.) agian this is estimated at a 25% growth rate which Cisco has been exceeding..but even if they slow the last 2 quarters dramtiacally to 20% Cisco will still make $7.986B - well over an annualized 20% growth rate. ASND's much smaller year over year growth is indeed something to be concerned about as an investor. In fact Cisco's growth alone year over year is apparently more than ASND's entire revenues! Hope you had a good rest.... Now...I hope this little arguement is over so that we can get on with talking about things that really matter. ASND will do well in the backbone ATM/FR space. This space will grow and ASND is currently positioned well. They need to use this success to leverage growth. And, since ASND is narrowly focued in this space they simply can't afford to lose deals to NN, LU, NT, and CSCO because this limits their growth. Because of the companies narrow focus they really can't make it up in other businesses ... at least not in a major way... perhaps some more RAS success will help... Gary (not Korn)