To: Spytrdr who wrote (2797 ) 4/10/1998 12:25:00 AM From: Oeconomicus Respond to of 13953
Leo, unfair maybe, but not unjust. That would imply that the mispriced stock is EGRP, not AMZN or YHOO. The big difference here is that the Internet model for brokerage is not much different from any other discount brokerage. The business is very well understood by the investment community and it is relatively easy to measure the success of the business and to value of its customer base. In other words, there are standards by which to value EGRP. YHOO is at the other extreme. Nobody really knows how that company might evolve as the 'net evolves; nobody knows whether they will ever make enough off of the existing business to justify the price; but they believe that this evolution will make it into some kind of media giant that will find new and wonderful ways to make money that us mere mortals can't even imagine. There are no standards by which to value the unimaginable, so the value is unlimited (at least until something shakes that blind faith). As far as 'net financial services, better to own a broker than a small, 'net only bank like NTBK. Discount brokerage is one of the best applications of the Web to commerce where the established powerhouses may have little advantage other than name recognition, an advantage that a few (but just a few) upstarts may have overcome while Fidelity and most of the full service brokers sat on their hands. I also think that EGRP's chances of survival and eventual success are better than many others. However, until there is a shakeout of many of the "me too $8 dot com" brokers, EGRP will have a tough time growing. A serious market downturn would hurt them badly also - in several ways - but that might help bring about the shakeout. If you are patient, I think EGRP can do well over the long haul, but I also think that you will get ample opportunity to accumulate at a lower price in the meantime. I also think that, before long, EGRP's market cap will exceed that of AMZN by a comfortable margin, but not because EGRP will double anytime soon. I'd say it's a tortoise and hare thing, but I think the hare is really on steroids so its speed is artificially induced and rather than needing a rest it is just as likely to keel over dead. You can wave to the corpse as you pass it. Bob