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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SE who wrote (38974)	4/10/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Provoking thoughts, but I cannot take much time to think about various issues, such as May options. As we've touched on in the past, there is always the "usually" safe play of legging into credit butterflys, but it seems most want the "big hit" that comes from a rare event such as holding puts during a market meltdown. I've done that on occasion, it's like heroin. Each time the market dips it clouds rational thought to a degree with respect to exit points. Anyway, as I say I have to run. But the possible trigger could be the greenback, as Japan was selling it overnight and it dropped 3 Yen. A weak dollar may have short term bearish complications for US Markets. ----I hope the Barron's writers aren't reading this. I hate when they quote me and don't give me credit.

To: SE who wrote (38974)	4/10/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Re: Plonk, INTC etc. For a long time now on the YAHOO INTC thread I've been telling people that 35 is a possibility for INTC. INTC has some very strong support ~70. However if a sudden dip were to occur during an external event then the stock could go into a free fall. I think that the Plonk trigger will be Japan. Japanese investors did not like the relief package that was just revealed over there. Every major government in the world has been unloading dollars against the yen to stop the damage. It hasn't been working yet. Soon the BOJ will run out of dollars to dump. Next step is to begin to dump the bonds that they are holding .. OR .. the Japanese government decides that it is finally time to fix the problem for real and dumps bonds. Either way a s**tload of bonds are coming this way. I think that it will happen so fast that it won't be able to be played over here. All the action will happen before the bell. In the meanwhile, by watching the exchange rates, we will be able to see where the liquidity is flowing to. If there is ANY WAY to do it the mom and pop folks in Japan will be trying to get their money out of Japan. They may go for gold. They may go for US bonds. They may go for US stocks. They may try to go to Zurich. I think that the rumors that banks are done dumping gold are false. I expect to see a major sell in gold when the price gets high enough. I have advised my friends to take 25% of holdings and buy bags of silver. Good enough for Buffett, good enough for me. Re: INTC .. It's interesting to note the lack of open interest in puts after April. Even more interesting when you take into account that INTC is the single largest seller of these puts. Overall .. Japan triggers some downwave .. then INTC picks up where Japan left off. Lets hope that all this happens before 4/17. I think that the power of the wave may be more than the MM boys can stop. Gersh