Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (38981)	4/10/1998 10:09:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Respond to of 58727

I tried to use some of Mr. Plonk's analysis. He is very good at his approach. The problem that I ran into is the apparent easy opportunity to mistake little waves for big Waves in terms or market action. I would also guess there must be some tuning by the individual based on empirical backtesting to get the wave timing parameters correct. Thus, I have found it too confusing and non-quantitative for me personally. Also, there is the possiblity of missing one of the wave structure as happened to Mr. Plonk. Then it appears that you lose your time reference and have no navigational peg point to go forward. You have to wait until future events to try to rebaseline your wave structure. My technical read now indicates that we have at least several days of upside but then the potential of some fairly sizable corrective action. It is very possible that a pullback from today's PE on the S&P of about 23.5 to 24 to about 21-22 is very possible. That would be a 7 to 10 percent retracement and could happen at almost any time. However, the potential and the occurance are different things. I think going forward we need to be prepared and positioned for this real possibility or just a long dead money period. The first quarter 12 plus percent return can NOT be duplicated throughout the year.

To: donald sew who wrote (38981)	4/10/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

I have done some preliminary reading on the Elliot Wave since Plonk's posting and tried to follow along to learn something. It looks difficult at best. However, that being said, I have also been amazed at the intra-wave accuracy he has predicted and yesterday was actually wondering about 1 pm cst if he got the ABC correction screwed up and that we would be starting the C point up yesterday afternoon, not ending it. That is the hard part...when does one end and the next begin, there are subtle variations and one mis-read can kill ya. You have gone further in your analysis than I have, do you know how the timing of the waves is predicted? Where did the 6.5 or was it 7.5 day down window come from? Why only that many days?? Why not a bit longer or a bit shorter???? How does the timing work.....if this keeps getting pushed out further and further, the Aprils will die a slow death...along with many who decided to go for it. Concerned? You bet. I hope nobody bet the farm. This is pure gambling time one week from expiration. I will sing his praises if he gets this one right, but anyone is only one chart read away from being a "has been" if the farm was bet. -Scott

To: donald sew who wrote (38981)	4/10/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: PnclNk	Respond to of 58727

Thanks for the warning about blindly tagging along with Plonk. I for one know nothing about EW and am very skeptical about ALL TA methods. I prefer digging through the entrails of small animals to predict the future. <g> Yes, I did make a minor bet on Plonk's confident calls but I will not be surprised to see it go down in flames. Who knows? I do believe that the overall market is DUE for a correction and it would be really cool to have some puts at just the right time! Yes, this is dreaming not investing. GOOD LUCK TO ALL. Better to be lucky than brilliant!

To: donald sew who wrote (38981)	4/10/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

As for his projection for a huge pullback to 8150 range by next Thursday, specifically my wave analysis is saying that there is a chance that he may miss it by one sub-wave, but it is also indicating a very strong drop. and if he misses by one sub-wave...what would the drop be if anyone was watching CNBC....was it martin biggs that was in cash right now...?????someone was on late Friday...didnt catch his name...but I think it was Martin Biggs.... csta.org tell me your take on this candlestick chart....and what does it mean glad to see all these new posters on TSO..... (okay...okay....I was promoting the thread...but I said OTHER PEOPLE WERE GOOD....I didnt mention me!- I just ask the questions and do my surrogate reporting)

To: donald sew who wrote (38981)	4/10/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

I scanned the other 4 (to date ) replies to your post and I have to say that I have been reluctantly saying the same thing. I say reluctantly because I do not wish to appear to slam kerPlunk. He has a nice technique but it does appear to be somewhat of a long shot. Further, what Dave does not yet realize is that everytime he sneezes someone will buy or sell, right or wrong. It's a heavy responsibility in a moral sense and he seems to be sort of young to accept that. Personally I agree 100%, in that I would be more concerned about someone who took a trade on an off hand remark by myself. I could lose a bunch and shake it off and someone else who took my advice might have a tough time making the rent payment. So, to refer to lisa's remarks about these people that don't post trades because they want to get their price before letting others in on the "move".....the hell with them. Like you, I'm more reluctant to say what I'm doing because of the off chance some person who cannot afford it takes a bath on a trade I was in and out of quicker than I could post on. So to sum up, Dave may be correct. But longshots are not the way intelligent gamblers stay in the game.