Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (43601)	4/10/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: username	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

An excellent point. If anyone has access to a Bloomberg machine, you can go to a stock, say ASND for example, and put in the code <ern>. You will get a chart that shows cumulative numbers for 12 months going back a quarter at a time; in other words, quarterly growth with a 12 month time frame. I have found this to be quite enlightening, as it filters out the quarterly 'noise' and gives a better (IMHO) overall picture of growth. You can do the same thing with the Value Line, or any other source of the numbers, but you must do it 'by hand'. I have seen growth with this system that is not readily apparent by looking at quarterly numbers, and have made some excellent picks as a result.

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (43601)	4/10/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Cisco FY 97 Q1 97 $1.430B Q2 97 $1.592B Q3 97 $1.653B Q4 97 $1.765B FY 97 $6.440B FY 98 Q1 98 $1.869B (31% growth rate) Q2 98 $2.016B (27$ growth rate) figuring a 25% rate for Q3/4 Q3 98 $2.066B (est.) Q4 98 $2.206B (est.) FY 98 $8.157b (est.) ASND FY97 Q1 $292.8M Q2 $311.7M (6.5% Q1-Q2) Q3 $270.4M (-13.2% Q2-Q3) Q4 $292.5M (7.6% Q3-Q4) FY 97 $1.167B Fy 98 Q1 $305.1M (4.1% Q4-Q1) (4.2% Yr/Yr growth rate) Q2 $320.3M (est. at 5% qtr/qtr growth!) Q3 $336.4M (est. at 5% qtr/qtr growth) Q4 $353.2M (est. at 5% qtr/qtr growth) FY 98 $1.360B (18.8% year over year) Dennis.. .note I've been pessimistic about Csco (forecasting slowing growth), and optimistic about ASND (forecasting increasing growth - based only on track record). ASND qtr/qtr growth has averaged below 5% for the past 5 quarters yet I gave them 5%. Also I did a quarter over quarter growth which eliminates the poor quarter they had last year which were due to the acquisition. I don't think this was market softness...but if it was. Furthermore this last quarter of revenues still isn't up to Q2 of last year (summer quarter) an off quarter...It's taking ASND a long time to turn around and the competition is moving. Even after all these factors (and discounting CSCO's growth to only 20% yr/yr which they've consistently beaten) ASND still is significantly off the market leaders growth rate. This is my concern. ASND has to step it up signficantly....even to make the $1.4B discussed in the conference. And, even $1.4B still put's them slightly off a 20% growth rate (19.9%). Still behind the leader..which means lost market share. Nuf said.. Gary (not Korn)