Hi Teddy Bulls, or should it be Teddy Bunnies today, giggle... I'm not very funny...here's a news article...ASND is mentioned:
April 13, 1998, TechWeb News
1998 CRN Mutual Fund -- Despite Earnings Warnings From Bellwether Companies, Stocks Continue To Hit Record Highs And Contestants Are Riding The Bull Market
By Eric Hausman
New York -- EDITOR'S NOTE: This week CRN unveils the second-quarter picks for each of the 20 contestants in the CRN Mutual Fund contest. In addition, the complete standings are displayed as of the end of the first quarter.
So much for a market correction.
The start of 1998 brought with it warnings and concerns that stocks were in for a struggle. But three months into the year, stocks continue to hit record highs and the Asian crisis seems to already have been forgotten.
Even earnings warnings from bellwether companies such as Intel Corp. and Compaq Computer Corp. have not slowed the momentum. And several contestants in the CRN Mutual Fund contest are enjoying impressive returns.
With the first quarter complete, 15 of the 20 contestants in the contest have seen their portfolio values rise. And four of the five below the break-even mark hold significant short positions. Those players figured to do well early on as predictions of a downmarket were prevalent. But that simply has not taken place.
In the first quarter of 1998, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 11 percent and the technology-rich Nasdaq gained 17 percent. The increases have continued in the early part of the second quarter, with the Dow recently crossing the 9000-point mark.
As usual, the results of the leading Mutual Fund players have been even better.
Todd Bakar, senior technology analyst at Hambrecht & Quist, jumped out to a fast start and continues to lead, with a portfolio value that has gained 48 percent and is at $148,181 to start the second quarter.
Each of the players began the yearlong contest with a $100,000 hypothetical investment in six stocks. Two of the stocks remain in place for three months, two for six months and two for the entire year. Contestants include investors, analysts, portfolio managers and channel executives, who pick under code names. The CRN Grab Bag is made up of stocks picked at random.
Both of Bakar's three-month picks in the first quarter, Compuware Corp. and Dendrite International Inc., saw strong gains during the period, rising 54 percent and 48 percent, respectively. Bakar's six-month pick of Digital Generation Systems Inc. rose 55 percent in the first three months of the year.
For his new three-month picks, Bakar has chosen Macrovision and Verilink Corp.
Following Bakar is channel executive Assembler, with a portfolio value of $141,042. Assembler's three-month pick of Informix Software Inc. performed well, soaring 79 percent during the first quarter. However, his other three-month pick, Compaq, was off 8 percent. And a six-month buy of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. gained 62 percent in the first quarter.
For his new three-month picks, Assembler has chosen Radius Inc. and Computer Associates International Inc. The executive likes CA's prospects following the company's failed attempt to buy Computer Sciences Corp. And regarding Radius, he said: "Their new product to bring four-color prepress technology to the Windows market opens up bigger revenue opportunity for them."
Assembler is attempting to become the second consecutive channel executive to win the contest, after Raging Elk's first-place finish in 1997. Raging Elk currently sits in fourth place and is looking for a rebound from MicroAge Inc. in the second quarter. That stock is one of Assembler's new three-month picks, along with Syquest Technology Inc.
MicroAge also was one of Raging Elk's three-month picks in the first quarter, but the stock fell 16 percent. The executive's other three-month pick, Ascend Communications Inc., gained 55 percent.
But Raging Elk's best pick so far has been a six-month buy of Apple Computer Inc. The stock has more than doubled in the first quarter.
Between Raging Elk and Assembler is Michael Murphy, editor of the California Technology Stock Letter.
Like Assembler, Murphy has benefited from a buy on Informix, although that stock will remain in Murphy's portfolio for the entire year.
Both of Murphy's three-month picks performed very well. Integrated Device Technology gained 49 percent, while Diamond Multimedia Systems Inc. was up 68 percent.
For his new picks, Murphy has chosen to repick Integrated Device Technology and has a buy on Seeq Technology Inc.
"They earned money in the last quarter but it was the first time, and it was less than others were looking for," Murphy said regarding Seeq. "I think they will surprise [analysts] now. This is a direct play on the communications [sector.]
Seeq also was a new three-month buy for Al Tobia, analyst at Montgomery Securities. Tobia, who is in seventh place after the first quarter with a portfolio value of $120,319, made Bell Technology his other new three-month pick.
Tobia is one of the few experts to fare well with some short positions. His one-year short of C-Phone Corp. fell 49 percent in the first quarter and his six-month short of Olicom A/S was off 8 percent. Tobia also is doing well with his one-year buy of EIS International Inc., which gained 52 percent during the first three months of the year.
The other player doing well and who has a short in his portfolio is David Takata, a vice president at Gruntal & Co., with a portfolio value of 121,280. However, his six-month short on Applied Magnetics Corp. has gained 4 percent in value, resulting in a net loss for Takata on that pick.
However, he is more than making up for that loss with his one-year buy of PSINet Inc., which has jumped 117 percent since the start of the year.
For his new three-month picks, Takata has chosen a buy on Network Computing Devices Inc. and Verity Inc.
"Verity has leading search software, which is becoming increasingly important to the unstructured nature of corporate documents located in intranets and on the Internet," Takata said. "I also like the company's alliance with ALIS, a language translation company out of Canada."
Meanwhile, Network Computing Devices has an alliance with IBM Corp. and is renewing agreements with Citrix Systems Inc. and Microsoft Corp., Takata said. "Intel [Corp.] just invested in NCD and will help in developing thin clients," Takata said. "The ability to access data independent of the OS is key in the new networking paradigm."
Takata added that he is looking for improvements in the small-cap market.
For those who rely heavily on shorts, the year is off to a bad start.
For example, David Tice, portfolio manager at the Prudent Bear Fund, has only shorts in his portfolio and is in 19th place with a portfolio value of 77,248. He has repicked his three-month shorts of Dell Computer Corp. and Applied Materials Inc. All of his picks in the first quarter gained value, meaning his holdings decreased.
Tice is being particularly hard-hit by the continued gains of Yahoo Inc. That company's stock gained 34 percent in the first quarter. Tice picked Yahoo as a one-year short, though, so there is still time for him to make money off that stock.
Kelly Williamson, a private investor, is in last place. He had four shorts in his initial portfolio but has replaced three-month shorts of Lam Research Corp. and Metricom Inc. with buys of PowerWave Technologies Inc. and Xilinx Inc.
Jeff Matthews, general partner at RAM Partners and Curt Monash, president of Monash Information Services, are both ahead of Williamson and Tice, but also struggling to break even due to several shorts.
Matthews' one-year short of Harbinger Corp. and his six-month short of Oracle Corp. are both hurting him, with Harbinger's stock up 34 percent and Oracle's stock up 42 percent.
His first-quarter short of Motorola Inc. also did not work out, with that stock gaining 6 percent in the first three months of the year.
Matthews is trying a new short, of OnSale Inc., to start the second quarter. He also has chosen to buy Seagate Technology Inc.
Meanwhile, Monash, who always maintains three shorts and three buys in his portfolio, was hurt considerably in the first quarter by a three-month short on Software AG Systems Inc. That stock gained 83 percent.
For the second quarter, Monash is sticking with his short on Software AG and has chosen to buy Sybase Inc.
"The valuation disparity is now ridiculous," Monash said. "An investor gets partial rights to Software AG's technology for almost the same price they pay for total rights to Sybase's much more valuable product portfolio."
Contestants ride bull market for big gains
Only five of the 20 players are below the break-even mark.
SIDEBAR: What The Experts Are Saying
'I'm not worried about the technology sector. I don't think the PC business is all that bad.' - Michael Murphy
'[For investors], Platinum Technology is probably the most hated enterprise software company with excellent products and customer satisfaction. The stock looks cheap.'- Gerard Hallaren
'[TechForce's] disappointing historical results primarily reflect difficulties in two large accounts, and have obscured continued operational success in the growth of the network services business.'- Raymond Reed
'I'm now overloading with small-cap tech, which has underperformed. Verity has leading search software, which is becoming increasingly important to the unstructured nature of corporate documents located in intranets and on the Net. I also like the company's alliance with ALIS, a language translation company out of Canada.'- David Takata
'I like CA's prospects after the failed merger with CSC.'-Assembler
'The valuation disparity is now ridiculous. An investor gets partial rights to Software AG's technology for almost the same price they pay for total rights to Sybase's much more valuable product portfolio.'- Curt Monash
'[Compaq and HP] have been floundering a little recently and are poised for solid gains this quarter.'- Competitor |
