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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edward J. Edwards, III who wrote (43639)	4/10/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

<<CSCO - Csco Warned as I recall that growth will not be as high as expected. I could not find the release but remember reading it on the csco thread. You will correct me I am sure if I am wrong.>> There is an analyst synopsis I posted on News Only sometime back in NOVEMBER, already anticipating that this CSCO qtr would be slow. They must be being given this kind of guidance for some time now. ******** Actually it was mid December. This from Goldman Sachs with my comments posted back then GS says that CSCO's historical seasonal pattern largely reflects the buying patterns of corporate enterprise customers. As the company's mix shifts towards the service provider market, the spending pattern of service providers, which typically show a very strong year-end buying period followed by a sequential decline in spending in the first calendar quarter, is likely to make the CSCO's existing seasonal pattern more pronounced. GS says the risk is that estimates on a quarterly basis may not reflect this change in seasonality. Slower than historical growth in the April quarter could be misconstrued as an indicator of a change in the market or the company's position in the market. [Wow! GS is already positioning to gloss over a weak CSCO April quarter that hasn't even hit yet! Ya gotta love it.]

To: Edward J. Edwards, III who wrote (43639)	4/10/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

******OT OT OT********** Csco Warned as I recall that growth will not be as high as expected. I could not find the release but remember reading it on the csco thread. You will correct me I am sure if I am wrong. If you don't mind (Gary), I'll make the correction here. Cisco announced that the industry's growth would not be as high as it usually is. However, this is something that Mr. Chambers announced at the end of the last quarter and is the same announcement they make every year at this time because historically this quarter is the industry's weakest. Therefore, Cisco has not warned in the same sense that BAY, NN, COMS, etc. have warned. As we have discussed before, the only way for CSCO to grow 20%+ this year and in the future is ACQUISITION, ACQUISITION, ACQUISITION. You need to understand that this is part of Cisco's strategy. Cisco's acquisitions are more like the purchases of R&D then of the purchases of revenue, and their theory makes sense. Why not let these small companies specialize in their small niche of the market and then acquire the knowledge and allow the individuals at the company become part of a bigger, stronger, better team while at the same time remaining with their tight-knit group that they have been working with? This is different than what ASND did. ASND just bought Cascade because neither could compete well enough against Cisco. The ASND purchase screwed them all up, though, because they didn't realize that it isn't easy to merge two large companies like that. That is why Cisco's purchases work. Happy Easter, JRH