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Biotech / Medical : Biogen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stanley Cowen who wrote (639)	4/13/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Respond to of 1686

Stanley, thanks for posting your summary of the article in your local paper. I'm don't know what impact, if any, this finding will have in the future on Intron A revenues. But, I've seen a couple of analysts reports following the conference call (thanks!) and there was no mention in these reports of concern over falling Intron A sales. The reports focus on Avonex being the company's main earnings engine. The reports also focus on the pipeline's being 3-4 years from maturation. They forcast earnings around the consensus of $1.80/sh for this year, and Biogen has apparently given them guidance towards this number despite the higher R&D spending that the company said it would do this year ($170MM). The reports list what is in the pipeline and pretty much parrot back what Jim Tobin and Dr. Davies said during the conference call about trials, progress and results release dates. Neither report I've read is enthusiastic. They list Biogen shares as market performers, but give the company a high rating. My theory about biotech in general is that it is only truly exciting to an analyst when a new "something" is anounced. That something then takes years to commercialize and that process is pretty boring. The fundementals of a biotech company that does good science and manufacturing do not change over short periods (unless someone invents a better fix for the target problem(s)), but the stock prices fluctuate wildly. I just don't think analysts have patience. It takes patience to see products develop. Everyone was hyped on ISIP. Now they are not. Why? Some have been hyped on LGND. Now they sort of are, but the stock price has not appreciated much over the past 3 years. The street runs hot and cold on GENZ. Same with BCHE and AGPH. No different with Biogen. Biogen has several hot products in the pipeline. They are making money. Even analysts concede that the company is likely to make $1.80 then $2.30 per year for the next two years. Then Biogen seems likely to emerge with three winning products in anti-CD40L, LFA3TIP and CVT-124. All of which will take off like a shot, at least in the US. There is no treatment for Lupus. There is no effective treament for psoraisis. There are no great treatments to keep the heart and kidney from beating up on each other in coronary patients. Why aren't analysts excited? Is 3 years too long a time to wait? I said one year ago that Biogen will see 40% appreciation in price/share over the next several years. I still stand by that. This company is a winner and if it takes the investment community a little time to get excited again, that is OK.

To: Stanley Cowen who wrote (639)	4/14/1998 9:01:00 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1686

I believe Amgens Infergen is a tradename for consensus interferon CIFN. Further info on CIFN can be found at Message 526 of the ICN message board on Yahoo. If I am correct the implications as I see them are: 1. Near term none, it will take some years for approval. 2. If approved, several years out it may have a small impact on SGP as CIFN replaces some uses of Intron A in comb therapy with ribavirin. 3. CIFN may become another combo therapy partner for use with ribavirin and this would be good for ICN and could expand the number of ailments that could be treated with ribavirin.