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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Coyne who wrote (43665)	4/10/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: username	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Interesting you should mention PR. The number one rule is: Don't Lie. They read this thread at ASND. So do the CSCO dudes and the COMS dudes and the BAY dudes. Hey CSCO dudes! You heard about my bet with Gary, didn't ya? (Don't get me wrong, I like Gary.) :o) pete

To: George Coyne who wrote (43665)	4/10/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: devil ray	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 61433

Any one know where the stock closed in overseas.I am getting conflicting reports of up sharply and down slightly.Also rumors spreading like wildfire.Something big on the horizon or just speculation?50 by friday!!!!O.k I'll settle for 42.Ascend will rocket up monday I hope but I'm afraid the momentum investors are going to bail out next week.Selling of this stock should be forbidden next week or until I sell my apr.40's!!!!!!DO NOT SELL OR YOU WILL MISS OUT ON THE BIG DAY1

To: George Coyne who wrote (43665)	4/10/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: Inga	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 61433

They have to look at the big picture. After two recent quarters the big picture is much more visible. Ashby told the street that Asnd was comfortable with Q4 97 and gave guidance to Q4 and fiscal year 98 within a few weeks he took over. After two quarters of beating the guided earnings, better revenue growth prospects (RAS is picking up again, GX550 shipped but not generated Q1 revenue yet, substantial GTE contract over competitors, operating as a single company now with complete RAS/ATM solutions), the future looks very solid. Long term, EPS growth is more important than revenue growth (Many companies generate revenues and post earning loss. EPS growth means the company is consistently profitable). The EPS guidance was .22 (actual .24/Q4), .25 (actual .26/Q1), .28, .31, and .34 which is 10% quarter-to-quarter EPS growth (40% annual EPS growth). Asbhy did expect the 2nd half of 1998 to be better (double digit growth). If using 98 EPS guidance and industry average PE (30), a fair value for the stock is 35.40 = 30(.25+.28+.31+.34). A higher valuation assumes that Asnd beats earning estimates the next 3 quarters is 36.60 = 30(.26+.29+.32+.35). With current earning visibility, the stock price probably can support/hold a PE of 35-40 well. Using 1998 EPS guidance, a fair stock price is 47. At year end, if everything goes according to plan (very likely with the AT&T, GTE and Williams contracts), I don't see any reason why the stock cannot achieve the valuation of 1999 forward earning. Assuming a PE of 30 again, a fair value would be 46 = 1.191.3030 or higher 66 = 1.191.4040. Wishful thinking, if year end EPS is much higher than the guided annual EPS 1.19 due to significantly better 2nd half of 98, the street may award Asnd stock price a PE of 45 with 1999 forward earning, 77 = 1.191.4545. From this long-term (6-12 months) scenario, the downside is limited and the upside potential is huge. If the stock can get to 65+ by year end, it really makes no difference to enter the ride at high 30s or 40+. Short-term, from a TA perspective, since Feb 2 there is no gap above 35 to be filled. Ignoring April 9, candlestick forms a "morning star" on April 6-7-8 (a very bullish pattern signifying a potential bottom). The star also shapes like a hammer (indicating reversal) so the white body on April 8 can be used as confirmation signal of a starting uptrend. The dark cloud of April 9 (bearish) probably can be ignored since it was related to nervousness of earning date. The chart was in an uptrend since Jan 13. All down days in March were not justified (Intel warnings, SNI bomb threat, short rumours that Asnd will not meet estimates, AH downgrades) and did not last for more than 5 consecutive days. Next week, if we still see the 30s, probably this is the very last week this year in the 30s. (Short rumours, bomb threats, random downgrades will not work any more because the company fundamental is the ultimate driver of the stock price and it is in control). Better hardware, major CLECs wins, ATM over SONET, good and predictable earnings. What else do we need to have besides patience and belief in the company's future.

To: George Coyne who wrote (43665)	4/12/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Tiffany Trump	Respond to of 61433

Hi George Coyne, there seems to be a bug in the private message system applicable to the free SI trial deal; it will not allow me to PM you to respond to your PM...it does not allow me to respond to anybody via private message...Note for new members: You may send up to 3 messages per day until we receive your SI membership fee of $125. and this is my 1st MSG today...oh well, what can you expect for free...I will try again on Monday, George...I'm doing OT @work today and don't feel like going out to the parking structure to my car to get my wallet/credit card...thinking about good ol ASND though...and those Cadbury Easter eggs...the ones with the candy coating around that silky milk chocolate...mmmmmmm...I do hope ASND knocks my socks off tomorrow...it's about time...but I will not hold my breath on this stock again...whatever happens...happens...and that's just the way it is! ROCK & ROLL ASND!!!! Here's a news article: April 13, 1998, TechWeb News Network Switches -- Broadband architecture accommodates ATM, IP mix -- NetCore scheme targets frame and cell services By Loring Wirbel Wilmington, Mass. - A company with roots in the design teams of LANCity Corp. and Sigma Network Systems Inc. has unveiled a carrier-class broadband switch that can handle frame and cell traffic for a mix of native asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) and Internet Protocol (IP) services. NetCore Systems Inc. aims its Everest architecture at carriers who need to transport various services but want to avoid higher-layer specialized routing protocols. Founders Kwabena Akufo and Steven Dunstan already have proved their ability to implement high-layer route and switch functions in silicon, through their work with the Am29000-based Sigma switching architecture ultimately acquired by Cabletron Systems Inc. Since late 1996, Akufo and Dunstan's design group at NetCore has been exploring ways to aggregate ATM virtual channels to efficiently carry a mix of telephony and IP traffic. NetCore expects to compete most directly against traditional broadband switch architectures from the likes of Cisco Systems Inc. and Ascend Communications Inc. John Shaw, vice president of marketing, said NetCore assumed from the start that Everest would need to interconnect natively with routers and broadband switches in the field, and that systems would have to be ready for public-networking duties from inception. "The underlying approach we took with Everest was assuming that every node be capable of intelligent switching, without using MPOA or MPLS," said Shaw, referring to Multi-Protocol Over ATM and Multi-Protocol Layer Switching, respectively. "Every interface to the switch can do straight ATM switching, straight IP routing or IP mapping to ATM in hardware." Virtual-channel flexibility Use of ATM virtual channels as dedicated paths is a flexible approach, the company said. Traffic can be explicitly assigned to virtual channels or aggregated over multiple virtual channels based on traffic patterns, using a proprietary technique NetCore calls "VC Merging." The architecture requires no ATM segmentation/reassembly functions. All switching-fabric and IP-routing hardware was designed internally and implemented in FPGAs. The core building block for scalable systems is the Everest Integrated Switch 10 (EIS-10). With a 10-Gbit/second backbone capacity, it is able to route IP packets at up to 2.5 Gbits/s. By combining systems in rack-mounted arrangements or in clusters, nodes can scale to 640 Gbits/s and, eventually, to 1.2 terabits/s. One logical switching node can be geographically distributed across a metropolitan or larger region. Large clustered systems are treated as one routing entity, avoiding the logical-routing "explosion" when traditional switches are combined to create supernodes. Because quality-of-service parameters can be set at the virtual-channel level, packet prioritization can take place without explicit use of protocols like MPLS or Resource Reservation Protocol. Then, when these standards have been defined, the software can be added to the Everest switch without adding a dedicated signaling stack. Virtual-private-network services can also be mapped to virtual channels, a prospect that has won accolades from service-market analysts like Strategic Networks Consulting Inc. and Cimi Corp. By not offering guaranteed service categories and guaranteed bandwidth, business carriers and Internet service providers lost more than $900 million last year, said Tom Nolle, principal analyst at CIMI. He estimated losses will top $1.5 billion this year. Everest uses a core ATM switch and a separate management processor board. The company will demonstrate the system at next month's NetWorld+Interop show in Las Vegas and will ship beta units this summer. Typical configured system prices start at $15,000 per port for OC-3, $40,000 per port for OC-12 and $90,000 per port for OC-48.