To: Keith A Walker who wrote (1044 ) 4/11/1998 11:24:00 AM From: The Phoenix Respond to of 1181
Tek, Your last comment on this post to Gary was hilarious. And I will point out that he has yet to answer my question as to whether or not he is a Cisco sales rep. Yes, it was amuzing, wasn't it. As for your question, I didn't know it was a serious one...but the answer is no. However I am in the industry and have been for 15 years. I've evaluated the YURI product as part of an acquisition consideration and know quite a bit about it. In particular we were concerned about it's price points and the older technology. This caused the company I was doing this investigation for to build their own rather than buy... There is at least one other flaw in Gary's argument as to why Yurie will be at the end of the road after Q4. He discounts any potential new products or acquisitions of product to leap-frog into the layer 3 switch arena. (If I have the terminology correct here.) In all due respect, I think I've pointed this out on previous posts (well not the part about YURI acquiring technology - but about building thier own). I stated a number of things I think YURI should do to assure success. Among statements like "build a bigger/badder direct sales channel", "reduce cost/price", were comments like "new product evolution". Now, I will say that I didn't point out layer 3 specifically, but I'm not sure that is in the cards for someone like YURI.. It may be to "orthoginal" to their core competency. We have all suspected a takeover of Yurie at some point, but, frankly I don't think that would make any difference to how this stock would end up appreciating in the long run. (Short run is a far different matter.) I have heard no argument from Gary, which is objective and based on facts, that would preclude me from thinking that Yurie could become another Cisco, Ascend or Bay. Let's hope not a Cabletron. Hee hee... I'm sorry for giggling, but are you serious? The only way this happens is a huge paradigm shift in the industry taking connectivity away from IP to ATM. This simply isn't going to happen. Oh, to be sure, there are plays for ATM and it will do well in pockets, but ATM in the campus battle is over, and ATM on the edge is shrinking. Even the CableCO's are going IP to the home and the Sony's and Samsungs of the world are imbedding Windows CE and CSCO IOS into their devices... not ATM. :( I guess I believe in full disclosure when it comes to these threads. I am tired of the lies and innuendo that gets passed along as truth to unsuspecting readers in these valuable forums. Well, I think I've provided more information about myself than you have about yourself. Furthermore I've not posted one lie. I've posted opinions..true...but not my opinions, the opinions of the companies I work with like MSFT, HP, INTC, GTE, Qwst, and yes..CSCO..I always feel that he has an ulterior motive behind his statements. Nope...sorry to disappoint you. I'm just watering down the thread with information from the "other side"..the "dark" side. Here, let me fill you in on a little ditty. Im my "previous life" I worked for a company that built ATM products. My entire world was ATM...I lived, breathed and ate CELLS. We thought IP was slow and could not deliver multiservice.....we stayed wrapped up in our world of ATM and sighted all the wins we were getting as proof that we were right. We didn't think - we KNEW - we would win the upcomming war over IP. But I've since left that environment and have been exposed to the dark side...I'm over here seeing what these folks are doing. IP is so much more open to new applications and is much more maluable. The IP camp is quick on their feet. They are going after the multiservice space in a major way. The consortium is huge relative to the ATM folks and it's more than likely that the ATM vendors (in general) will be crushed under this weight....much to my dissappointment - believe. So, my position of playing "devils advocate" on this thread is intended to sensitize you to what is going on out there beyond the ATM walls. It's really quite unbelievable...and I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it for myself. Now, could I be wrong..SURE.. but somehow I don't think I am. Late this year and during 99 will be a telling time and I just don't think that companies like YURI can go it alone in these dangerous waters. They have to make some changes and they have to do it NOW. June is too late.. Good luck on your position... I have no doubt that you'll do well here, but I'd take some profit (hopefully enough to cover the initial investment) in late Q3 early Q4. I think by that time pressure will be brought to bear. Gary