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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TMMI - Total Multimedia -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rainy_Day_Woman who wrote (8258)	4/11/1998 12:59:00 PM
From: Bruce Hoyt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19109

My revised SWAG on TMM's financial situation (rev 3.0): * Annual revenue estimates for Elvis CD. With any marketing this should sell at least 50,000 copies a year, more with David making a few enhancements. I think former debtors get most of this money so let's use $5 a copy as TMM's share of gross revenues. That's $250k per year in revenues. * Annual revenue estimates for Trudef. If the current version includes corrections for the minor beta problems we saw, it should sell at least 30k copies a year at a guess of $15 per CD to TMM. That's $450k a year to TMM in revenues. * The new contract with RAVE, per Tom, should draw $ 2 - 3 million per year. We'll use the $ 2 million for this valuation. * Total recurring revenues = $ 2.7 million. This does not include any new products or potentially higher sales of products. Normal valuation is ~5 times annual revenues so we could estimate a $13.5 million valuation based on this formula. * Next, we need to add in the Jackson settlement. Since we will probably get assets in lieu of the $ 3.5 million cash, we should get at least $ 4-5 million in assets but I will use $ 3.5 million. * Now we add in the infamous tax loss carry forward. Information on the exact amount has been inconsistent but appears to be somewhere around $ 20 million (we were very good at losing money). Normal corporate taxes would be around 40% so a $ 20 million deduction saves you about $ 8 million. Of course if it is sold they would want a discount so we might get $ 7.5 million for it. * Per Tom, we have $ 500k+ in computer equipment and other hardware assets. So, we have $ 13.5 million + $ 3.5 million + $ 7.5 million + $ .5 million = $ 25 million in asset sales value. Could be as high as $30 million if Trudef & Elvis hit sales targets. Debts: * $ 3 million in notes to Gary Singer as of last June * ~ $ 1 million in back salaries and misc. debts * $ 2 million to AMCI or potential dilution of 32 million more shares common stock This does not include potential revenues from other products using the Trudef engine, higher sales of Trudef & Elvis CDs, other new Elvis type CDs, awards from lawsuits or settlements with Iterated, Altamira, MCI, etc. so a few more cents are probable. Using the estimated 100 million shares outstanding figure, that equates to a low end 19 cent fair value stock price or buyout target value and maybe a 24 cent high end. Using 132 million shares (per Tom its not likely, the preferred to common conversion can be extended) we eliminate the $ 2 million payment to AMCI and get a ~16 cents per share low end estimate and a ~18 cent top end valuation. I'd like to see that 24 cent high end but would have no trouble living with the 16 cent low end either. I realize that will never satisfy those who bought in at high levels but they have had ample opportunity to average down during the past year. All of this sounds impossible given the current stock price but I have watched several sub penny stocks shoot up over 25 cents in just the past few months with much less going for them than TMM has. And when they did it, it happened in a matter of days! Disclaimer: All of this is my guestimate based on small scraps of information we have been fed or found through SI members DD. Since TMM is in a non-disclosure situation right now Tom may not be able to comment on the quality of the guessing. Bruce de thinker of things rising from the dead this weekend guy