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To: SE who wrote (39089)	4/11/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

Scott, Not really sure what you mean by a BLOW-OFF-TOP. I looked at all the major pullback in 1997 and there was nothing abnormal I could spot, anything to identify what a blow-off-top is. Is it more psychological where it caught more surprised. In looking at all the selloffs of 500 points or more on the DOW, I am noticing distinct similarities with the current charts. Im not saying that the bigger pullback of 500 points will be next week, but it should occur before the end of April. Seeya

To: SE who wrote (39089)	4/11/1998 2:52:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

One thing that I have been noticing is that the frequency of cycles (peak to trough) is getting faster. It has reached a point where I have some short term (5-6 days) stochastics oversold and longer (12-14 days oversold). This pattern of increasingly fast swings is likely result in a decent blowoff in one direction or another and then a flat market for a while. These observations form the basis for my thesis of an up market for several days and then a reasonable downturn (perhaps 5-7 percent) and then nothing for a while. But who knows.

To: SE who wrote (39089)	4/11/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

My opinion, and it's just an opinion, is the next solid pullback will then recover with a major move not only to 10K but well beyond with the US Market predominant for about 7 years and no big crashes. See, I can say this....I'm 46 years old, no one can tell me I don't know what a crash is like. I know a former AMEX member who lost everything he had because a PATH train got stalled going into NYC in 1987 and this guy was long big time. So that's my guess. We have a major pullback soon, but then the market walks up a wall of worry after and the best bet is to buy quality and meet me at the first tee each day until 2005.