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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16083)	4/11/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

James To many variables at this time to call the market Sure appears to be. The market seems to be unable to make up its mind. It was headed down on Thursday and suddenly in the last 10 mins. it turned up. Was it the shorts buying back to stay out over the weekend ?? Was it the longs who decided market was gapping up Monday and didn't want to be left out ?? Any other reason, logic ?? The patterns are all mixed up, this market don't favor the bulls or bears right now..just the very astute hedger has the edge. Didnt even think of this category !! Thanks for your input. I am in for Monday to be down. I have OEX April 535 puts about a 1/4 point below my purchase price. If OEX doesnt go down in the morning I will probably get out with a loss unless I can come up with a hedge over the weekend. Any ideas ANYONE ?? ratan

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16083)	4/11/1998 8:42:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim: there are markets...and then there are markets. I made a big mistake last fall by failing to watch what the bond was doing. Right now the bond seems to be flat, the feds don't want to do anything and are doing their darndest to maintain stability without changing interest rates. They COULD remove liquidity from the money supply to deflate the stock market....but this doesn't appear to be happening. One thing I see to support this market is a enormous army of banks waiting to be consolidated, most of them are microcaps. The opportunity is vast here ...so many people are buying houses and remodeling them and buying new things to put in them, that the market should reflect this for the next year. I don't consider the Dow, or S&P large caps, to be a very good indicator of the US and world economy, the microcaps and ADRs are a better indicator. And right now they are screaming. The stuff pushing the market up is (1) microcap banks, (2) pension and investment house stocks including big banks, (3) microcaps espec homebuilding (4) ADRs. Interesting, yes? I saw an ad today that showed a U.S. made cedar-sided manufactured home on a mountain slope in Japan. Would Japan buy affordable houses from the US with their money, instead of buying Dow stocks, if Japan loosened its barriers? I'm inclined to think yes.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16083)	4/11/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Right on James....Market is too illogical for anyone to figure out! Basing any predictions on Elliot Wave or any other measuring stick, especially when it involves historical data is almost worthless. Joe Granville, Peter Lynch, etc. still make it on CNBC...and Michael Metz....still calling for a bear market, just like at 6,000, 7,000, 8,000, etc. I guess they have to be right sometime. Fact is, with the baby boomers putting incredible amounts of $$$ into mutual funds, this acts as a buffer on dips. There are no other good or comprehensible, alternative places to put your money (at least as far as the average investor is concerned) A Clinton Impeachment (unlikely); rise of the Yen, Japanese pulling out of our market, FED. rate tightening, or certainly signs of renewed inflation will affect the market...no doubt. But no one knows "when" with any certainty that these factors will change. SO...unless the market tanks starting Wed. afternoon, as many have suggested with some certainty, I will blow all you prognostacators off....ONE MORE TIME...FOR THE UMPTEENTH TIME.