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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3065)	4/12/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 9980

Barry, yes, I think they can "spend" themselves out of this hole, and they need not do it for a long time. I think that a "bolus" of massive stimulation will have the effect of improving the "sentiment" of consumers, and once consumption picks up by 2% to 4%, the train will start and move on its own. Right now it is particularly important that they do that since they have to revive (with their consumption) the SEA economies, soak excess capacity by increasing final demand (and closing some excess capacity as well). If they do not, they doom their own economy, Japan exports to the SEA economies is much larger than their export to the US. This part of their economy might be hit very hard if domestic consumption does not pick up, IMHO. Zeev