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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (43839)	4/11/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

Europe Will Close Broadband Gap, Report Says. [Includes info on DT plans] (04/11/98; 1:29 p.m. EST) By Phil Jones, Total Telecom techweb.com The United States is still ahead of Europe in the provision of broadband local access services, but the gap will narrow later this year, according to a report by London-based Datamonitor. The European broadband access-services market, which will be based primarily on digital subscriber line (DSL) and cable modems, will grow to be worth $2 billion by 2000, Datamonitor said. The report, titled Next Generation Internet Access: Breaking the Bandwidth Bottleneck, will be published Tuesday. Increased investment by cable network operators is, in turn, spurring greater urgency among telecommunications carriers, the report says. Europe's cable network operators, in particular, are introducing applications that are encouraging business and consumer customers to demand increased bandwidth, the report says -- for example, showing video-clip previews of films showing at local cinemas. Conventional carriers, such as Deutsche Telekom, are starting to respond to this local-access threat with strategies of their own based on DSL technology, according to the report. The result of the telephone companies' response will be an explosion in demand for cable modems and DSL equipment, said Datamonitor, which said it predicts cable modems will have the edge over DSL in the early market. However, growth in both technologies will be rapid. Datamonitor said it predicts Europe's present population of 120,000 cable modems will swell to 6.8 million by 2002, while today's 60,000 DSL lines will increase to 5.5 million over the same period. Cable Modems Outsell ADSL In The Consumer Market Installed base (000s) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Consumer cable modems 15 120 600 1,500 3,500 6,800 Consumer UDSL/ADSL 5 60 400 1,200 2,600 5,500 Source: Datamonitor Although much of the current interest in DSL is focused on the opportunity to speed up Internet access for consumers, Gavin Parnaby, Datamonitor analyst and author of the report,said he expects business use to be the real focus for carriers implementing DSL technology. "Everyone says DSL will make a real difference to consumers, but I see the telcos showing the most interest in it as a business service," Parnaby said. He said he predicts 360,000 businesses across Europe will use DSL services by 2000. The business focus of DSL service providers will see cable operators picking up the lion's share of consumer demand for higher Internet-access speeds, but this may not prove to be the most profitable option. According to Datamonitor, though cable-modem growth will outstrip that of DSL lines, the money will be in the business market for DSL services. By 2000, Datamonitor said it predicts, business-oriented DSL services will generate almost $1.3 billion in Europe, whereas consumer services will generate just $745 million. Service Provider Revenues From Next-Generation Access Technologies SP market size ($000s) 1997 1998 1999 2000 Consumer 7,260 61,527 281,199 740,069 Business 24,134 131,597 480,381 1,298,748 Source: Datamonitor The company likely to make the most of this new service revenue stream seems set to be Deutsche Telekom, Parnaby said. Deutsche Telekom is already publicizing its plans to offer new applications as well as high-speed access before the end of the year. By comparison, the other European carriers are "all very reticent to say what their plans are. But they are all very aware of what's happening in this area," Parnaby said.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (43839)	4/11/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: djane	Respond to of 61433

ADSL May Be Top Data Access Choice (04/09/98; 7:07 p.m. EST) By Mary Mosquera, TechWeb techweb.com How consumers choose to receive data in their homes will ultimately depend on price. Digital subscriber line (DSL) is the front-runner in that regard, a research analyst said Thursday. By 2001, there will be several million DSL subscribers, said Vern Mackall, who follows data communications technology for International Data Corp. in Framingham, Mass. Mackall made his forecast at an IDC conference, "Telecom Transitions '98: How to Make Dollars and Sense in the Telecommunications Markets." Mackall's statements directly contradict a top Intel executive and analysts' predictions, made Wednesday at a New York conference on TV-PC convergence, that cable modems will be the most popular high-speed data access technology within a few years. DSL increases data speed over ordinary telephone lines. Asymmetric DSL (ADSL), a version of DSL, is even faster and suits the Internet user, Mackall said, but the price will have to come down to $55 to $65 a month to stoke consumer and small-business demand. "Expect a gradual migration to ADSL," he added. Until ADSL service hits the market, analog modems, with speeds up to 56 kilobits per second (Kbps), are the only game in town. One way to boost the speed of analog modems is to bond existing multiple lines into a bigger pipe; Microsoft is building the ability to do that into its Windows 98 operating system, due out in June. ISDN, which delivers voice, video, and data between 64Kbps and 128Kbps, is readily available throughout the U.S., with about 1 million lines in use. Service rates range from $30 to $70 per month, and a terminal adapter runs about $250. Mackall said ISDN is available for about 85 percent of phone lines in the U.S., depending on the local carrier. For example, ISDN is available in Tennessee but not in New Mexico. DSL, which delivers data at 128Kbps, allows the user to talk on the phone while leaving the data line free. A universal ADSL group, comprised of Microsoft, Intel, Compaq, and the Baby Bells, formed earlier this year to promote the technology. Customers will be able to buy the equipment themselves from a retailer, and monthly service costs, which run as high as $200 in tests, must fall under $65 per month for the technology to achieve mass-market appeal. The quality and price of a DSL connection, however, depends on the distance between the modem at the carrier switch and the modem at the customer site. An area of concern is the local loop -- the last mile to the customer -- because "it wasn't designed to do all this," Mackall said. Mackall expects the main alternative to DSL, the cable modem, to catch on as well, but not as quickly. He predicted there will be 2.2 million cable modems in use by 2002, but cable modem development will continue to be hindered by the industry's inability to reach agreement on technology standards. Cable modems will be suitable for secondary phone lines, "if cable companies can show people there is reliability," he said. To improve reliability, cable companies have been upgrading their infrastructure with fiber, but so far, they've reached only about 25 percent of all homes in the U.S. They'll need another $15 billion to $20 billion more to complete the project, and that could keep the cost to users high. High-speed cable modem access will have to fall below $40 per month for widespread adoption, Mackall said.