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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (21650)	4/12/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: Elmo Gregory	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Victor - Novell went through a repurchase program in fiscal 1996. From Novell's 1995 10-K ========================== In addition, the Company has announced a share repurchase program whereby the Company is authorized to repurchase up to 37 million shares of its common stock in the open market during fiscal 1996. [Nov 95 thru Oct 96] sec.gov ========================= The stock repurchase program may have had a short-term effect during the first quarter of 1996 but I suspect other factors were at work. As can be seen from viewing the chart covering the November 1995 through October 1996 time period, there was no obvious long term benefit to the stock price. Since there were many other factors at work during this time period, it would be difficult to accurately know how much influence the repurchase program had on the stock price. quicken.excite.com In my opinion using the $100 million to acquire missing technology that would either enhance or fill-in Novell's product gaps would better serve all concerned. Getting the best possible products out the door as soon as possible is the best strategy. The investment community is waiting to see earnings growth in addition to Novell's ability to deal effectively with Microsoft's NT product. The share price is governed more by perception than reality at this time. Several other stocks can certainly serve as examples of perceived value not supported by earnings: America-on-Line and Yahoo. The recently reported earnings of these two stocks cannot justify the price. Trying to forecast a five year scenario for Novell is an exercise in futility. There are just too many unknowns to be successful. The two most important events that could move the stock are several quarters of increased earnings (show me the money as Joe might say) and a good buyout rumor. And a change in the board of directors would be a plus as well. The above is my personal opinion and is not intended to persuade anyone in their investment decisions. Regards, Elmo