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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (3814)	4/13/1998 3:49:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78497

Michael, It looks like we are sharing some stocks in our universes. :-) I have no comment on SJP and TBR except that I find them interesting. :-) Regarding ADPT, I looked at it and decided that I can't see whether they will survive the next round of PC-on-a-chip consolidation and what are the future high-margin high-growth areas that the management will find. They fall into a class of companies that I don't understand and that I would have to buy just on the belief that the management knows what they are doing. Similar to MOT, NSM, TXN, IDTI. I will not buy it but I know that I may miss a superstock. Additional comment on all semi stocks including INTC and HWP - they all are very capital intensive and spend incredible amounts of cash-flow on capital expenditures. Even INTC spends all its income on capital expenditures! They have a positive cash flow after adding depreciation and amortization but it's still mind boggling. ;-) I am waiting for more downside on ELY - it's still too expensive for me. I would buy HWP at the current price if I had more cash. Good luck Jurgis

To: Michael Burry who wrote (3814)	4/13/1998 4:50:00 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78497

Hi Mike sorry about your PC. I have concluded that I do not understand enough about tech stocks to invest in them. It seems that when they look like bargains they are not and when they seem overpriced it is because they have or about to have some technological edge. There is a new book out called the gorilla you may want to look at. After reading the article in Fortune re SJP it makes me want to go down to Talahasee and check the place out. I don't see the urgency of investing in SJP at these levels. They seem to be expanding into different areas and I predict some learning curve difficulties which may augur for a better entry price. Big MO looks really cheap to me and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a profitable investment. Addictive substance pushing usually is. SO personally if I were to pick a can't lose stock for 1998 MO would be it. I 'm surprised buffett isn't a big investor in it. I just purchase a closed end fund-Royce Global Value. It trades at a 17% discount! I don't know why. the other royce closed funds trade at 8% discounts. I also own Deswell and TBR as well as Elamf.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (3814)	4/13/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78497

Liquidation Mode I sold about 25% of my stock portfolio today and plan to sell another 20% within the next few weeks. I was 15% in cash to begin with, so you do the math. I have never done this before, so this reflects some serious concern. I put about 10% into Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Fund (APF), a closed end cross section of Asia, including Japan, trading at a 18% discount to NAV. (The specific country closed ends are all at big premiums to NAV. I would not touch them.) I intend to average more into this investment over the next several months, as I sell my U.S. stocks. I am looking to sell anything that I do not have a big short term tax hit in. So if I've owned it 18 months and its near my price target, I'm selling. And if I just bought it recently, I'm selling all but special cases. Its not panic - that's when the market is going down. I just do not want to have my net worth in a market trading at 26 times trailing earnings, where earnings estimates are coming down and every single "expert" is wildly bullish. If this isn't a top, its got to be pretty close to one. In reading the Wall Street Journal this morning, I read that three of the five largest mergers ever have happened in the last WEEK. And that bearish sentiment is about the lowest it gets, at a time when valuation is as high as its ever been. What that tells me is that everybody who could invest has. Thats what we call a top. Earnings are just starting to come out this week, and I think there is going to be some carnage. If we get through this quarter intact, something else is going to do it. As anybody who has read my posts for the last two years knows, I am no market timer - I look at one stock at a time. But when sentiment and valuation are at extremes, as I believe they are both in the U.S. and in Asia, I have to act. Selling U.S. stocks and investing the proceeds half in cash, half in an Asia closed end selling at an 18% discount. This may look like a really stupid trade now, and may look even more stupid in six months, but we'll see how dumb it looks three years from now.