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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (16117)	4/12/1998 2:30:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Carl; Ha ;-) another dog track fan...Your right at the track I'm betting aginst the stupid bets others make. Ok lets just keep it simple skip the trifectas..most all exiotics have a higher nut (track takes bigger cut of the purse ) Learn how to win regular money just in the Win Pool..and do it consistently, before you move on to playing even quiniells. 85% of the people at the track are going to lose money and don't forget that, some of them a lot of money. If you cant consistently leave the track ahead playing the win pool you don't know how to play. The thing is the odds board you have to know how often the 1234 dogs you pick win, and never bet below thoes odds. You can use the morning line at most tracks and never need to handicap anything..just take the morning line picks ..and the odds on them..then don't bet any dog that does not go off at twice the morning line odds. You will pass up a lot of races that way but you will come home 3 out of 4 times a winner and will have a good over all average, just if you get greedy remember a big bet is like shooting yourself in the foot as you kill your own odds. The quiniells have a tote board you can see also..you only want to play those four top dogs..and you want any two of them to go off at 20 to 1 or better or pass..this is not written in stone you have to see just how often that works out before you bet real money here again you will be passing up a lot of bets you just know are going to win..but with out the odds pass them.. If you get consistent on coming out ahead on the quiniells, you can move to exactas..but keep in mind it's too hard to calulate odds on win, quiniells, and exactas all at one time..exactas being the hardest..you can likley handel wins and quiniells, at one time. As for Trifectas ..they are for the suckers not only is the nut too high..you can't see the odds..with no way to play odds it turns into a crap shoot and in the long run you will lose your shirt no matter how good you can handicap. Any one who tells you he is a consistent winner playing trifectas over time..is pulling your leg. Some people think they can figure the odds on them via the win odds..but that don't always work..in fact only about 50% of the time it will let you come close to the odds but you have no idea of when that is so. I'm convinced now that they have off track betting that there are programs running that pick off any really good long shots in the trifectas. -------------------------------- When I go; after not having been for a while I stick with the Win pool till I get warmed up. I need the self serve machines and place bets at the last moment..with my eyes glued to the tote board ready to hit cancel if odds drop below my threshold. It's not big money but it's fun and I have the satisfaction when I count my small change going out to the parking lot to know I beat 85% of the mullets there. ---------------------------------- First thing in handicapping is picking races were you know you can scratch at least two dogs..if you can't pick at least one but better two sure lossers pass the race. If any dog you scratch wins look out your not were its at, except if he just happended to win because 4 other good dogs did sumersaults in the first turn <G> ------------------------------ BTW me wanting to see the odds is one reason I now limit my stock research to issues that have options..and before I even look at their eaernings or other such stuff as most FA people do I look at the options..just look ..and compare the open interest to the volume the stock trades..you get a feel for it. Next I like to know the short interest..and being I haven't found short interest data on AMEX stocks I've cut back trading on the AMAX..do you know were to get short interest on AMEX stocks ? To me those things are often more important than the basic FA ( not always ) but without them I don't know ..so they are just about a must have. I can show you some damm good undervalued stocks , but they are not popular..and may not move worth a crap, and could even get more undervalued if the market sinks. The exception I make to options and short interest is on a scan if I find thoes cheap beat up ones with "real money" in the bank since FEB 1 I'v found 11 cheapes that sold for less than the cash they had on hand ( it's like a fluke )but every one has been a winner. They will not hardly every stay down oversold below their cash level for over a month or two at the most. MDEA was the last one in that catagory. I got to hunt for some more now. They may not pay big as you know they got a problem or they would not be below their cash on hand..but they are for the most part a good lay up for 20% or more. Jim