To: Richard Estes who wrote (978 ) 4/12/1998 2:31:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Hi Richard----My thinking is as follows----daily chart shows flagging momentum, which peaked in mid feb.--looks similar to run up to last Aug top. and is sending the message, to me at least, that a trend change is due.-----next, I count 5 waves up from a whole host of potential pivot points going back to the1990 low. And, since I believe that the Fifth Wave Extension started from the 1987 low, and that we did a 1-2 of such Fifth into the 1990 top and subsequent low, all the rest since then has in my view been a big wave 3 of the Fifth. The fourth subwave of this 3 was last yr's low of 6975 and if this was so, it would represent the downside target for the next downturn (fourth wave of l lesser degree), which I think will then turn out to be wave 4 of the Fifth Wave Extension.----this would also coincide with the 4yr cycle bottom targeted for 1998 by the way and set us up for a 5th wave (of the Fifth) into the area of 11-12,000. I note that from the Dec 1974 low of 570 on the DJIA (where the bull mkt originally started), we did a 1-2-3 into the 1987 top of 2700ish . a gain of 377%. Measured from the 1987 low of 1616 approx (wave 4), a Fifth Wave Ext can commonly be expected to travel 1.62x such % gain which would target 11,500 on the Dow.----I classify the rise off the 1987 low as a Fifth Wave Ext because a number of indicators peaked in 1986/87 and still have not been exceeded (eg adv/decline line, log based MACD etc etc). ----- in laying out the above roadmap, I well realize that even committed GETsters will naturally tend to want to scoff at such gymnastics--which just goes to 'prove' my long standing notion that few people with GET really believe in Elliott in the first place (vbg)
