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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (2386)	4/12/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

I don't want to over analyze an upgrade, but analysts tend to move with a herd mentality. Perhaps they're starting to feel that storage is an area to start moving money back into. I've been getting the feeling over the past several weeks that prevailing sentiment is that storage may have hit bottom and is starting to climb out. Shane

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (2386)	4/15/1998 4:16:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3029

Robert, I just read this on the Yahoo HTCH thread. >>>>>>I just spoke with Todd (investor relations) from HTCH for about half an hour today. Like D. Kellar, he returned my phone call, although it took him a few days. With that 140 mil in debt hanging over their heads, we can't expect Hutch to be perfect. Still the phone call was interesting. So that you all know, I'm a long INVX holder and have no holdings in HTCH. Given the current financial status of HTCH I considered shorting the CO. After the phone call, I'm not so sure. Most of my questions surrounded the TSA - HIF battle. Obviously, this guy Todd is going to be biased, but his remarks were fairly objective. He stated that if he were an outsider, he would judge the battle in two ways: (1) the number of programs with TSA vs. the number of programs with HIF and (2) the numbers coming off the production line. He stated that they were producing for at least 7 different programs with over a million TSA units shipped per week, ramping for other programs in very near future. (He implied that it was ALL THIS vs. a single program for HIF). Furthermore, he considered Seagate's technology as lagging behind Quantum and the other companies that were using TSA. I also asked about the difficulties with getting TSA up to production volumes. He stated that they have overcome the problems they were having. He also stated that they were charging a premium for TSA (well over the cost of HIF, I assume). The customers were still paying for it, and choosing TSA over HIF. Among other things, he considered INVX's window of profitability at two years max if HIF failed, given that the life span of MR lead wires is about that long. (I had to chuckle at this one, because I was thinking, "Hmmm, wonder if Hutch will finally be profitable in two years.") Finally, while I never totally "got" or understood all of the technicals of HIF vs. TSA, I did understand this: lamination has been the primary problem for both TSA and HIF. TSA solves this by actually cutting the product out of the laminate, and is therefore one piece vs. two for HIF. All of this is still unresolved, but it seems in my mind that TSA certainly has a fighting chance... and a good chance at that. Hutch is certainly BANKing on it. Depending on the upcoming quarter, I may consider looking into Hutch. You can be sure I won't sell my shares of INVX to generate the cash though. If you have any thoughts about the battle, throw them out there. Maybe we can generate enough info to make some conclusions.>>>>>> I just listened to the SEG CC and I don't think they believe their products/dd are lagging those products made by QNTM. Here are some of my notes on the SEG CC: 1. OEM vs distributorship is 63% vs 37% Last qtr was OEM 66% amd distributorship 34% 2. Total Revenue: This qtr - US 50%, Europe 35%, and Asia 15% Last qtr - US 47%, Europe 39%, and Asia 15% 3. There is a big demand for the desktop main platform for their 2 and 4 gig drives (platters). 4. Cheetah II Drives - 3 OEMs qualified and 5 OEMS in the process (they expect 4 of the 5 to be qualified this coming qtr) (This could be very profitable for INVX since I assume they supply the HIFs to all of the Cheetah drives. 5. They are on allocation on their high end drives which I believe they said are basically U.S. based. 6. Desk top demand is high in Europe. 7. Inventory and distribution is down and that their desktop inventory is now at or under 8 weeks (I don't know what is considered a good inventory level). 8. They are currently 60% MR and 40% TFI. They expect by the end of the June qtr to be 80% MR and 20% TFI (I could have sworn I heard a female whisper in the background 100% MR by the end of June. Maybe it was my hearing aid:)) 9. 10-15% or the heads are manufactured externally. 10. The Cheetah drives have had good revues, but there is not a high demand at this time. They expect the demand to increase this qtr ending June (There are 8 OEMS that have either qualified are in the process of qualifying). 11. Al Shugert said he was "bullish" for the next three qtrs in terms of rising profit margins. 12. There are 4 main programs (I believe at the high end) that SEG is eagerly pushing. My notes are not all inclusive, but I tried to just write down that information that would give a clue to the dd industry in general and INVX. Kurt