Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuck Williams who wrote (18752)	4/12/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

ian, how does metz keep his job? their is only two jobs that you can consistently be dead wrong and get a raise? market strategist --and weatherman. my point with the market everybody agrees on historical term the market is overvalued. warren buffett says he's not buying anything but with market conditions things are not necessarily overvalued. my point is in semi's you know eps are coming down but trying to predict market conditions----ie--interest rates, monetary and fiscal policy-currency factors, foreign countries, liquidity, economy, wild cards- war-scandalsect-are impossible to predict and most people are dead wrong on marco effects. my point is if one of these ingredients change valuations and multiples will have to come down and with bad eps for the year it could be painful. by the way TQNT SEMI pre announcement that eps will be awful on a pre announcement--it will be a lonely summer-bulls markets end or correct usually when things like the internet stocks develop. good night.

To: Chuck Williams who wrote (18752)	4/13/1998 1:58:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Chuck, It ALWAYS "...pays to listen to the wisdom* found in tomes of the past.?*". The trick, IMO, is to be able to separate the WISDOM from the noise. ... and expecting the PAST to repeat itself exactly is just plain foolish. In other words, all other things are never equal. But if they were, then I'd probably be singing the same tune as Fleckinstein, Metz and Biggs. I have no idea where AMAT's price will be during the next year. ...nor do I much care. I have a pretty good idea where it'll be 2 years out. ... and that is likely to be a market beating performance. Ian.