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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (39267)	4/13/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

Lisa, After the 5th up wave, then we go into the down mode which also has a series of waves. Wave 1 down is down, wave 2 down is up, wave 3 down is down, etc. in all of these waves there are sub waves. I believe that wave 3 down is normally the larger down wave, as it is in the up cycle. Probably was not much help. Seeya

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (39267)	4/13/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 58727

Lisa and anyone else who may be interested--some thoughts on the use of Elliot wave Having seen Plonk's name mentioned several times, I decided to check out a few of his recent postings. First let me say that I am not an Elliotician though I do have an open mind regarding the methodology. My problem with the methodology is that where we are in terms of the different waves is very much a matter of interpretation. This results in some contradictory conclusions. For example, one of the foremost proponents of the theory, Prechter, has contended for some time that we are at the end of the final move in this bull market based on his interpretation of the wave structure -- now he has been saying this for the last several thousand points--and that we are headed to DOW 400 before the down move is over -- yes that is 400, I did not miss a digit. For those who are inclined to dismiss Precther, he was quoted with the same deference and respect during the 80s that Abby Cohen is today or that Granville was in the 70s. Since then, with his incorrect call on the market in the 90s, he has lost 80% of his subscribers. Even as Prechter calls for a collapse, another noted Elliotician -- Wolonchuck--says that we are getting close to the epi-center of primary wave three, which should cause an explosive move to the upside. He has contended for some time that when we get to the epi-center, we will see days when the DOW is up over 1000 points. Now Wolunchuck has been remarkably accurate in calling this market --he is the top timer--and has been for quite a while-- according to Timer Digest. Whereas Prechter expects DOW 400, Wolonchuck says that we will never see DOW 6000 again in our life time---both Ellioticians and both with very different conclusions regarding the potential downside!!!!!! I guess that the point that I am trying to make is that noted Ellioticians can and do vary in terms of where we are in the wave structure and what it means for the market, both in terms of the upside and downside. None of the above is meant as a criticism of Plonk's views or his methods. Time will tell if he is right in terms of what he is calling for this time and in the future. It does appear that he feels that the primary trend is still bullish -- and that this is a correction that we are in, though he sees more downside before the correction is over. I agree with him that we have not seen the top -- I use momentum as one of the primary tools that I follow, and based on that it is very unlikely that we have seen the top. Besides OJ is not waving his hands frantically enough for a top to be in place:) Although, I am flat the futures and have not received a buy signal, I would venture to say that we are, if anything, close to the end of this correction--if we have not already seen the bottom. But this is a subjective assessment and I would certainly not go long the futures based on this read. Anyway, these are just a few thoughts from one who although not as ancient as Nemer, has been around the block a few times:) Take care